SpaceCom have released the following decay notices since my posting yesterday: Object Notice issued Predicted decay UTC UTC #25065 = ETS-7 H2 r Jan 26 20:00 Jan 27 18:59 +-17h #25065 = ETS-7 H2 r Jan 27 07:36 Jan 27 19:03 +-7h #25065 = ETS-7 H2 r Jan 27 12:49 Jan 27 18:55 +-4h #25617 = ROCSAT-1 Orb Adjust Mod Jan 27 05:31 Jan 29 18:56 +-2d ------------------------------- The latest elset for the ETS-7 H2 rocket ... ETS-7 H2 r 13.5 2.5 0.0 3.0 v 171 x 162 km 1 25065U 97074C 99027.52153601 .12109839 86019-6 86755-3 0 4470 2 25065 34.5175 101.4249 0006860 343.6193 16.4315 16.39717890 66277 ... shows it running only 1.5 seconds early against the prediction I posted yesterday. A new analysis brings the decay forward to January 27.78 (18:48 UTC +-2 hours). This would imply re-entry over the NW Pacific Ocean near 31 deg N, 170 deg E. The track continues to the S of Hawaii (18:56) and onwards across Chile and Argentina, as per yesterday's message. It could still survive to reach Africa. My prediction for the final orbits runs: ETS-7 H2 r 13.5 2.5 0.0 3.0 v 165 x 157 km 1 25065U 97074C 99027.58236430 .18522496 24181+0 10364-2 0 94478 2 25065 34.5171 100.9678 0006016 344.2835 15.6978 16.41673175 66283 ETS-7 H2 r 13.5 2.5 0.0 3.0 v 158 x 151 km 1 25065U 97074C 99027.64312043 .24334887 45660+0 91761-3 0 94478 2 25065 34.5166 100.5098 0005034 344.9490 15.0359 16.44240351 66299 ETS-7 H2 r 13.5 2.5 0.0 3.0 v 148 x 143 km 1 25065U 97074C 99027.70376490 .37324988 12458+1 64695-3 0 94472 2 25065 34.5158 100.0507 0003808 345.6162 14.3729 16.47850784 66306 ETS-7 H2 r 13.5 2.5 0.0 3.0 v 128 x 125 km 1 25065U 97074C 99027.76422986 1.09486476 16617+2 55707-3 0 94477 2 25065 34.5145 99.5897 0001915 346.2861 13.7086 16.54962846 66317 ------------------------------- Current elsets for the two objects from the launch of ROCSAT-1 are: ROCSAT-1 602 x 589 km 1 25616U 99002A 99027.47001419 .00181973 00000-0 17630-1 0 58 2 25616 34.9848 282.3348 0009123 173.9145 186.1550 14.90901666 67 ROCSAT-1 OrbAdjMod 555 x 133 km 1 25617U 99002B 99027.57642451 .09032928 15585-6 53824-3 0 70 2 25617 34.6905 281.0123 0313326 209.4838 148.7818 15.75297909 88 The latter object, the final (3rd) stage of the Athena 1 rocket, will decay at January 29.74 +-0.5d according to my calculations. Predicted elsets: ROCSAT-1 OrbAdjMod 536 x 134 km 1 25617U 99002B 99027.76632654 .09154818 87185-2 53948-3 0 90075 2 25617 34.6897 279.7117 0299443 211.3665 146.8127 15.78589708 118 ROCSAT-1 OrbAdjMod 508 x 134 km 1 25617U 99002B 99028.01889526 .09858000 10180-1 55975-3 0 90072 2 25617 34.6886 277.9717 0279798 213.8851 144.2957 15.83387516 153 ROCSAT-1 OrbAdjMod 479 x 134 km 1 25617U 99002B 99028.27067464 .10723671 12961-1 58325-3 0 90077 2 25617 34.6875 276.2248 0258637 216.4139 141.7989 15.88560730 196 ROCSAT-1 OrbAdjMod 448 x 133 km 1 25617U 99002B 99028.52160354 .11848785 17297-1 61190-3 0 90073 2 25617 34.6862 274.4703 0235565 218.9538 139.3256 15.94211184 231 ROCSAT-1 OrbAdjMod 413 x 133 km 1 25617U 99002B 99028.77160220 .13398774 24756-1 64544-3 0 90076 2 25617 34.6848 272.7074 0210052 221.5059 136.8800 16.00499888 277 ROCSAT-1 OrbAdjMod 373 x 133 km 1 25617U 99002B 99029.02055984 .15806863 40052-1 68701-3 0 90076 2 25617 34.6832 270.9349 0181110 224.0720 134.4701 16.07721112 314 Alan -- Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144 Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/