Decay watch: January 19

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 19 Jan 1999 22:20:30 +0000

The current SpaceCom decay notices are:

Object                            Notice issued    Predicted decay
                                       UTC              UTC

#25579 = Iridium 11A CZ-2C r      Jan 19 15:22     Jan 20 15:51 +-16h

#25065 = ETS-7 H2 r               Jan 16 09:03     Jan 29 12:47 +-8d

               -------------------------------

The Iridium 11A rocket was running 34 sec early against yesterday's
prediction at the epoch of the latest elset, 99019.84.

My own prediction for decay now stands as early as January 20.55,
possibly near a southbound equator crossing near 45 deg E longitude at
13:07 UTC. The uncertainty is, however, is such that it could re-enter
as much as three orbits earlier or later.

Predicted elsets:

Irid 11A CZ r   10.0  3.0  0.0  3.5 d            223 x 137 km
1 25579U 98074C   99020.02885489  .09016449  38832-1  28292-3 0 91186
2 25579  86.3351 181.6713 0065497  47.4014 313.1492 16.34843205  4973
Irid 11A CZ r   10.0  3.0  0.0  3.5 d            196 x 134 km
1 25579U 98074C   99020.27330873  .14403987  12206+0  31993-3 0 91185
2 25579  86.3333 181.5295 0047687  46.3157 314.0785 16.40297581  5012
Irid 11A CZ r   10.0  3.0  0.0  3.5 d            163 x 127 km
1 25579U 98074C   99020.45594978  .32566872  96677+0  37538-3 0 91181
2 25579  86.3305 181.4227 0027711  45.4973 314.7288 16.47817628  5042
Irid 11A CZ r   10.0  3.0  0.0  3.5 d            141 x 120 km
1 25579U 98074C   99020.51657608  .73455743  70966+1  46723-3 0 91187
2 25579  86.3286 181.3868 0016348  45.2231 314.9097 16.53490690  5053

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
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