SatEvo decay list #69 (issued 1999 January 19) This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe. Information about SeeSat-L is available at http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 1999 March 15, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date. With drag rates having been low since my previous list, most decay dates have slipped. This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle, and all newly launched and/or catalogued objects. # Designation Name ----- Decay (1999) ----- Predicted Actual? 24345 94- 29 NW STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 4 25421 98- 46 J Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r January 4.95 24086 94- 29 EH STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 5 21083 90- 81 CJ FY-1B CZ-4 deb January 6 25192 87- 68 T Meteor 2-16 deb January 6 25532 98- 66 F Iridium 2 Delta r January 7.46 25440 94- 29 ADV STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 7? Notes 2,3 4583 70- 85 A Meteor 1-6 January 8.25 24159 94- 29 HJ STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 8 21148 91- 17 B Lacrosse 2 r January 9.12 25455 87- 68 CC Meteor 2-16 deb January 10 25533 98- 62 C Sputnik 41 January 11.32 25230 87- 68 BH Meteor 2-16 deb January 14 Note 3 23974 94- 29 U STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 16 Note 3 22896 83 -75 N Cosmos 1484 deb January 17 23066 89- 89 BM COBE deb January 19 24532 94- 29 WG STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 20 25579 98- 74 C Iridium 11A CZ-2C r January 20 25247 87- 68 BQ Meteor 2-16 deb January 21 23972 94- 29 S STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 23 25193 87- 68 U Meteor 2-16 deb January 26 3564 68- 97 Q Cosmos 252 deb January 27 25211 87- 68 AN Meteor 2-16 deb January 27 24542 94- 29 WS STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 28 25065 97- 74 C ETS-7 r January 28 24038 94- 29 CK STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 30 24019 94- 29 BQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 31 24405 94- 29 RJ STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 1 24565 94- 29 XR STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 2 23529 95- 13 B Intlst 705 Centaur r February 4 23075 89- 89 BW COBE deb February 5? Note 2 25186 87- 68 M Meteor 2-16 deb February 5 25217 87- 68 AU Meteor 2-16 deb February 6 24228 94- 29 LB STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 7 14356 81- 53 HS Cosmos 1275 deb February 8 19145 87- 20 BE Cosmos 1823 deb February 10 22584 93- 17 D GPS 2-19 r2 February 10 25197 87- 68 Y Meteor 2-16 deb February 11 22440 92- 93 EH C 2227 Zenit deb February 12 5399 71- 67 L OV1-20/OV1-21 deb February 13 25213 87- 68 AQ Meteor 2-16 deb February 14 23993 94- 29 AP STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 16 24224 94- 29 KX STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 16 16187 85- 99 A Molniya 1-65 February 19? 19771 89- 4 E Gorizont 17 aux mot February 21 24369 94- 29 PW STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 21 15551 69- 82 KQ OPS 1807 T-Agena deb February 22 16683 86- 31 A Molniya 3-28 February 23? 23973 94- 29 T STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 24 24430 94- 29 SJ STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 24 25452 87- 68 BZ Meteor 2-16 deb February 27 24141 94- 29 GQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb March 4 24270 94- 29 MV STEP-2 Pegasus deb March 5 175 61- 15 AZ Transit 4a r deb March 6 23907 96- 29 B NOSS 2-3 r March 7 15440 84-123 B NOAA 9 deb March 8 25166 98- 8 E Globalstar 1 Delta r March 11 25218 87- 68 AV Meteor 2-16 deb March 14 25182 87- 68 H Meteor 2-16 deb March 15 25472 98- 51 F Iridium 82 Delta r March 18 7418 74- 66 B Cosmos 673 r April 8 14329 83- 94 B Satcom 2R Delta r April 12 22583 93- 17 C GPS 2-19 r1 April 18 25580 98- 74 D Iridm 11A Smart Disp April 22 8755 76- 24 B Cosmos 808 r April 26 12519 81- 54 E Molniya 3-16 r2 April 28 4120 69- 84 B Meteor 1-2 r May 23186 94- 43 B APStar 1 CZ-3 r May 25347 98- 32 F Iridium 70 Delta r May 20352 89- 96 A Granat June 16609 86- 17 A Mir October Note 1 Notes 1. The predicted (natural) decay of Mir assumes that its orbit is not boosted again and that plans to de-orbit it about June are not carried through. 2. No recent elsets. 3. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay. Alan -- Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144 Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/