Re: Decay watch update: January 10
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 10 Jan 1999 23:05:08 +0000
A fit to the latest three published elsets (to 99010.729) leads SatEvo
to predict a decay time of 08:42 UTC, more than one orbit later than my
earlier effort but still +-3h. As Harro has noted, SpaceCom's latest
prediction has also slipped, to 08:13 UTC.
New SatEvo evolution:
Sputnik 41 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.5 v 171 x 167 km
1 25533U 98062C 99011.03467160 .12761608 11591+0 10824-2 0 91265
2 25533 51.6429 61.5352 0003133 17.6582 342.3526 16.38687337 9633
Sputnik 41 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.5 v 161 x 158 km
1 25533U 98062C 99011.15650221 .18817825 24140+0 99993-3 0 91268
2 25533 51.6419 60.8462 0002457 18.1720 341.8367 16.42448019 9650
Sputnik 41 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.5 v 154 x 151 km
1 25533U 98062C 99011.21729685 .25062098 45848+0 78337-3 0 91265
2 25533 51.6412 60.5008 0002038 18.4296 341.5777 16.45074031 9667
Sputnik 41 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.5 v 143 x 141 km
1 25533U 98062C 99011.27797611 .39791045 12697+1 57362-3 0 91263
2 25533 51.6403 60.1545 0001506 18.6878 341.3176 16.48853392 9676
Sputnik 41 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.5 v 121 x 120 km
1 25533U 98062C 99011.33845858 1.52673606 19141+2 57478-3 0 91265
2 25533 51.6388 59.8067 0000626 18.9473 341.0549 16.57329958 9686
My final rev above begins at a northbound equator crossing at 08:07 UTC
near 173 deg W over the central Pacific. It reaches Portland, Oregon, at
08:23 and Regina, Saskatchewan, at 08:26 continuing almost W->E across
SE Canada to the Gulf of St Lawrence. I show decay at about 28 deg N, 26
deg W as it approaches a southbound equator crossing at 08:50 near 3 deg
W. The track continues over S Africa (08:58-09:02) and SE Australia
(09:23-09:27) to another northbound crossing at 09:34 near 166 deg E.
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/