Re: Decay watch update: January 10

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 10 Jan 1999 23:05:08 +0000

A fit to the latest three published elsets (to 99010.729) leads SatEvo
to predict a decay time of 08:42 UTC, more than one orbit later than my
earlier effort but still +-3h. As Harro has noted, SpaceCom's latest
prediction has also slipped, to 08:13 UTC.

New SatEvo evolution:
Sputnik 41       0.2  0.0  0.0  9.5 v            171 x 167 km
1 25533U 98062C   99011.03467160  .12761608  11591+0  10824-2 0 91265
2 25533  51.6429  61.5352 0003133  17.6582 342.3526 16.38687337  9633
Sputnik 41       0.2  0.0  0.0  9.5 v            161 x 158 km
1 25533U 98062C   99011.15650221  .18817825  24140+0  99993-3 0 91268
2 25533  51.6419  60.8462 0002457  18.1720 341.8367 16.42448019  9650
Sputnik 41       0.2  0.0  0.0  9.5 v            154 x 151 km
1 25533U 98062C   99011.21729685  .25062098  45848+0  78337-3 0 91265
2 25533  51.6412  60.5008 0002038  18.4296 341.5777 16.45074031  9667
Sputnik 41       0.2  0.0  0.0  9.5 v            143 x 141 km
1 25533U 98062C   99011.27797611  .39791045  12697+1  57362-3 0 91263
2 25533  51.6403  60.1545 0001506  18.6878 341.3176 16.48853392  9676
Sputnik 41       0.2  0.0  0.0  9.5 v            121 x 120 km
1 25533U 98062C   99011.33845858 1.52673606  19141+2  57478-3 0 91265
2 25533  51.6388  59.8067 0000626  18.9473 341.0549 16.57329958  9686

My final rev above begins at a northbound equator crossing at 08:07 UTC
near 173 deg W over the central Pacific. It reaches Portland, Oregon, at
08:23 and Regina, Saskatchewan, at 08:26 continuing almost W->E across
SE Canada to the Gulf of St Lawrence. I show decay at about 28 deg N, 26
deg W as it approaches a southbound equator crossing at 08:50 near 3 deg
W. The track continues over S Africa (08:58-09:02) and SE Australia
(09:23-09:27) to another northbound crossing at 09:34 near 166 deg E.

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/