Decay watch update: January 10

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 10 Jan 1999 18:08:12 +0000

SpaceCom has issued the first decay notice for the Iridium 11A Long 
March rocket. The recent notices are:

Object                            Notice issued    Predicted decay
                                       UTC              UTC

#25533 = Sputnik 41               Jan 10:05:58     Jan 11 06:09 +-15h

#25579 = Iridium 11A CZ-2C r      Jan 10 08:15     Jan 20 08:41 +-6d

               -------------------------------

My current decay predictions:

   #    Designation    Name               Predicted decay (UTC)

 25533   98- 62 C   Sputnik 41             January 11 06:39 +-4h
 25579   98- 74 C   Iridium 11A CZ-2C r    January 21.7 +-2.5d
 25065   97- 74 C   ETS-7 H2 r             January 26   +-3d


Predicted elsets for Sputnik 41:

Sputnik 41       0.2  0.0  0.0  9.5 v            184 x 179 km
1 25533U 98062C   99010.79033420  .08913307  53010-1  12322-2 0 91253
2 25533  51.6387  62.9100 0003770   7.4545 352.5510 16.34287761  9599
Sputnik 41       0.2  0.0  0.0  9.5 v            167 x 164 km
1 25533U 98062C   99011.03452674  .16263803  18089+0  11711-2 0 91251
2 25533  51.6371  61.5359 0002661   8.4795 351.5249 16.40055423  9637
Sputnik 41       0.2  0.0  0.0  9.5 v            153 x 151 km
1 25533U 98062C   99011.15621481  .27738131  54996+0  85942-3 0 91256
2 25533  51.6358  60.8458 0001878   8.9944 351.0089 16.45129535  9654
Sputnik 41       0.2  0.0  0.0  9.5 v            142 x 140 km
1 25533U 98062C   99011.21688392  .47321084  23441+1  61209-3 0 91256
2 25533  51.6343  60.4993 0001324   9.2529 350.7496 16.49448345  9663

My final predicted orbit for Sputnik 41 takes it northwards over the
equator at 05:12 UTC near 128 deg W (E Pacific), then close to the S tip
of Baja California at 05:19, across N Mexico and the USA from SW Texas
(05:22) to Detroit (05:28). After passing over Ontario and Quebec, to
the N of the St Lawrence, it crosses the N Atlantic to N Spain (05:41),
and N Africa to reach a southbound equator crossing at 05:56 at 41 deg
E, over Kenya. It continues south-eastwards across in the Indian Ocean
and well S of Australia before reaching Auckland, New Zealand, at 06:27.
The following northbound equator crossing is due at 150 deg W longitude
at 06:39 and it is here that I now place its decay. If it survives, the
following orbit would carry it across the USA from N of Los Angeles
(06:51) to Fargo, N Dakota, at 06:56, thence again over SE Canada.


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
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