Decay watch update: January 8

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 8 Jan 1999 19:04:36 +0000

My apologies for titling yesterday's epistle as "Decay watch update: 
January 9" when it was for January 7!

These SpaceCom decay notices are current or have been issued and 
superseded since my update yesterday:

Object                            Notice issued    Predicted decay
                                       UTC              UTC
     
 #4583 = Meteor 1-6               Jan  7 23:31     Jan  8 06:00 +-4h
 #4583 = Meteor 1-6               Jan  8 04:24     Jan  8 06:52 +-2h

#21148 = Lacrosse 2 r             Jan  8 03:56     Jan  9 04:12 +-15h
#21148 = Lacrosse 2 r             Jan  8 15:37     Jan  9 03:57 +-8h

#25533 = Sputnik 41               Jan  8 01:13     Jan 11 01:25 +-2d

               -------------------------------

As a postscript to yesterday's decay of #25532, I note that SpaceCom 
have released one more elset:

Iridm 2 Delta r  5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            146 x 126 km
1 25532U 98066F   99007.36978960  .35157477 -12968-5  30217-3 0  1527
2 25532  82.4251 244.6204 0015061 123.1484 237.4011 16.51331552  9772

This is only 0.9 second early on my analysis yesterday which led to
decay at January 7 11:00 UTC, not enough to change my conclusion.

               -------------------------------

SpaceCom have failed so far to produce the post-decay notice for 
Meteor 1-6. The final elset is:

Meteor 1-6       5.0  1.5  0.0  5.8 v            129 x 124 km
1 04583U 70085A   99008.18656582  .21372550 -13492-5  12415-3 0  5742
2 04583  81.1265 351.8820 0004340 314.2309  46.0279 16.54926761550897

This shows it running only 2.5 seconds late at the epoch of the final 
elset in the evolution I posted yesterday. Again, I see no need to
change my conclusion that decay occurred near a northbound equator
crossing over the western Pacific at 156 deg E at 05:55 UTC today.

               -------------------------------

Updated decay predictions and SatEvo-predicted elsets:

   #    Designation    Name               Predicted decay (UTC)

 21148   91- 17 B   Lacrosse 2 r           January  9 03:30 +-3h
 25533   98- 62 C   Sputnik 41             January 11.2 +-0.5d
 25579   98- 74 C   Iridium 11A CZ-2C r    January 21   +-3d
 25065   97- 74 C   ETS-7 H2 r             January 24   +-3d

Lacrosse 2 r     9.8  3.0  0.0  5.0              160 x 156 km
1 21148U 91017B   99008.78169955  .10425693  77624-1  51910-3 0 91065
2 21148  67.9435 280.1122 0003025  36.2265 323.7940 16.42892536 64916
Lacrosse 2 r     9.8  3.0  0.0  5.0              152 x 149 km
1 21148U 91017B   99008.90335918  .14520418  16548+0  37708-3 0 91063
2 21148  67.9425 279.6937 0002436  36.0622 323.9542 16.45864128 64933
Lacrosse 2 r     9.8  3.0  0.0  5.0              139 x 137 km
1 21148U 91017B   99009.02474864  .26344251  64087+0  29227-3 0 91061
2 21148  67.9411 279.2740 0001651  35.8974 324.1136 16.50499721 64954
Lacrosse 2 r     9.8  3.0  0.0  5.0              127 x 126 km
1 21148U 91017B   99009.08527889  .52045043  29340+1  29662-3 0 91066
2 21148  67.9399 279.0633 0001061  35.8148 324.1923 16.54840478 64964

Sputnik 41       0.2  0.0  0.0  9.5 v            227 x 218 km
1 25533U 98062C   99009.00722444  .02496471  33685-2  13376-2 0 91143
2 25533  51.6428  72.7691 0006582  15.2162 344.8035 16.19063067  9304
Sputnik 41       0.2  0.0  0.0  9.5 v            207 x 201 km
1 25533U 98062C   99010.05447300  .04423534  11468-1  13601-2 0 91142
2 25533  51.6407  66.9994 0004721  19.5188 340.4992 16.25902294  9473

               -------------------------------

My final orbit for #21148, the Lacrosse 3 Titan 4 rocket takes it
northbound over the equator at 02:02 UTC near 140 deg E over Irian Jaya
and Papua New Guinea, onwards to N Alaska (02:23), ESE across Canada
towards Quebec city at 02:34, then S to an equator crossing over the
mouth of the Amazon (02:46 at 51 deg W). The southern leg carries it
over E Brazil, well S of S Africa, NE across the Indian Ocean to a
northbound crossing of the equator again near 118 deg E (Bornea) at
03:30 UTC. Although I place decay here, it may well last into the
following rev which could carry it SE across the E USA from Minnesota
(04:01) to the Florida Panhandle (04:05).

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/