My apologies for titling yesterday's epistle as "Decay watch update: January 9" when it was for January 7! These SpaceCom decay notices are current or have been issued and superseded since my update yesterday: Object Notice issued Predicted decay UTC UTC #4583 = Meteor 1-6 Jan 7 23:31 Jan 8 06:00 +-4h #4583 = Meteor 1-6 Jan 8 04:24 Jan 8 06:52 +-2h #21148 = Lacrosse 2 r Jan 8 03:56 Jan 9 04:12 +-15h #21148 = Lacrosse 2 r Jan 8 15:37 Jan 9 03:57 +-8h #25533 = Sputnik 41 Jan 8 01:13 Jan 11 01:25 +-2d ------------------------------- As a postscript to yesterday's decay of #25532, I note that SpaceCom have released one more elset: Iridm 2 Delta r 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.6 d 146 x 126 km 1 25532U 98066F 99007.36978960 .35157477 -12968-5 30217-3 0 1527 2 25532 82.4251 244.6204 0015061 123.1484 237.4011 16.51331552 9772 This is only 0.9 second early on my analysis yesterday which led to decay at January 7 11:00 UTC, not enough to change my conclusion. ------------------------------- SpaceCom have failed so far to produce the post-decay notice for Meteor 1-6. The final elset is: Meteor 1-6 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.8 v 129 x 124 km 1 04583U 70085A 99008.18656582 .21372550 -13492-5 12415-3 0 5742 2 04583 81.1265 351.8820 0004340 314.2309 46.0279 16.54926761550897 This shows it running only 2.5 seconds late at the epoch of the final elset in the evolution I posted yesterday. Again, I see no need to change my conclusion that decay occurred near a northbound equator crossing over the western Pacific at 156 deg E at 05:55 UTC today. ------------------------------- Updated decay predictions and SatEvo-predicted elsets: # Designation Name Predicted decay (UTC) 21148 91- 17 B Lacrosse 2 r January 9 03:30 +-3h 25533 98- 62 C Sputnik 41 January 11.2 +-0.5d 25579 98- 74 C Iridium 11A CZ-2C r January 21 +-3d 25065 97- 74 C ETS-7 H2 r January 24 +-3d Lacrosse 2 r 9.8 3.0 0.0 5.0 160 x 156 km 1 21148U 91017B 99008.78169955 .10425693 77624-1 51910-3 0 91065 2 21148 67.9435 280.1122 0003025 36.2265 323.7940 16.42892536 64916 Lacrosse 2 r 9.8 3.0 0.0 5.0 152 x 149 km 1 21148U 91017B 99008.90335918 .14520418 16548+0 37708-3 0 91063 2 21148 67.9425 279.6937 0002436 36.0622 323.9542 16.45864128 64933 Lacrosse 2 r 9.8 3.0 0.0 5.0 139 x 137 km 1 21148U 91017B 99009.02474864 .26344251 64087+0 29227-3 0 91061 2 21148 67.9411 279.2740 0001651 35.8974 324.1136 16.50499721 64954 Lacrosse 2 r 9.8 3.0 0.0 5.0 127 x 126 km 1 21148U 91017B 99009.08527889 .52045043 29340+1 29662-3 0 91066 2 21148 67.9399 279.0633 0001061 35.8148 324.1923 16.54840478 64964 Sputnik 41 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.5 v 227 x 218 km 1 25533U 98062C 99009.00722444 .02496471 33685-2 13376-2 0 91143 2 25533 51.6428 72.7691 0006582 15.2162 344.8035 16.19063067 9304 Sputnik 41 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.5 v 207 x 201 km 1 25533U 98062C 99010.05447300 .04423534 11468-1 13601-2 0 91142 2 25533 51.6407 66.9994 0004721 19.5188 340.4992 16.25902294 9473 ------------------------------- My final orbit for #21148, the Lacrosse 3 Titan 4 rocket takes it northbound over the equator at 02:02 UTC near 140 deg E over Irian Jaya and Papua New Guinea, onwards to N Alaska (02:23), ESE across Canada towards Quebec city at 02:34, then S to an equator crossing over the mouth of the Amazon (02:46 at 51 deg W). The southern leg carries it over E Brazil, well S of S Africa, NE across the Indian Ocean to a northbound crossing of the equator again near 118 deg E (Bornea) at 03:30 UTC. Although I place decay here, it may well last into the following rev which could carry it SE across the E USA from Minnesota (04:01) to the Florida Panhandle (04:05). Alan -- Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144 Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/