decay watch update: January 5
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 5 Jan 1999 21:34:12 +0000
These SpaceCom decay notices are current or have been issued and
superseded since my update yesterday:
Object Notice issued Predicted decay
UTC UTC
#25421 = Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r Jan 4 16:43 Jan 4 22:52 +-4h
#25421 = Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r Jan 4 20:20 Jan 4 22:49 +-2h
#25421 = Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r Jan 4 23:20 Jan 4 22:53 +-59m
#25532 = Iridium 2 Delta r Jan 4 19:09 Jan 7 13:50 +-2d
#25532 = Iridium 2 Delta r Jan 5 08:53 Jan 7 06:06 +-1d
#4583 = Meteor 1-6 Jan 4 15:25 Jan 8 13:02 +-2d
#4583 = Meteor 1-6 Jan 5 14:30 Jan 8 11:59 +-2d
#21148 = Lacrosse 2 r Jan 4 23:18 Jan 8 23:47 +-2d
#25533 = Sputnik 41 Jan 4 10:29 Jan 11 06:17 +-6d
-------------------------------
#25421, the Orbcomm 13 Pegasus rocket, kept remarkably close to the
prediction I posted here yesterday. Three of the four elsets published
since then show it within 0.5 second of prediction and the final one...
Orbc13 Pegasus r 1.3 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 156 x 135 km
1 25421U 98046J 99004.86106028 .21248528 10889-4 28907-3 0 2583
2 25421 44.8948 190.1496 0016545 324.1314 35.8698 16.47716507 24168
... shows it only 0.75 seconds late. My final analysis indicates decay
at January 4.947 (22:43 UTC), over Mexico City. This was only ten
minutes before SpaceCom's decay time and five minutes after it passed
over Los Angeles.
-------------------------------
My updated decay predictions and SatEvo-predicted elsets:
# Designation Name Predicted decay
25532 98- 66 F Iridium 2 Delta r January 7.25+-0.3d
4583 70- 85 A Meteor 1-6 January 8.2 +-0.5d
21148 91- 17 B Lacrosse 2 r January 8.4 +-0.6d
25533 98- 62 C Sputnik 41 January 10.5 +-1.0d
25579 98- 74 C Iridium 11A CZ-2C r January 21 +-3d
25065 97- 74 C ETS-7 H2 r January 23 +-4d
Iridm 2 Delta r 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.6 d 227 x 173 km
1 25532U 98066F 99006.02343292 .04103345 86330-2 94033-3 0 91417
2 25532 82.4406 246.2333 0041124 115.0719 245.3555 16.27409672 9554
Iridm 2 Delta r 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.6 d 207 x 166 km
1 25532U 98066F 99006.51465075 .06215789 23502-1 96518-3 0 91414
2 25532 82.4388 245.6536 0031844 113.0596 247.2764 16.32312063 9635
Iridm 2 Delta r 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.6 d 174 x 150 km
1 25532U 98066F 99007.00390751 .15341275 15362+0 65621-3 0 91411
2 25532 82.4357 245.0707 0018427 111.0367 249.1604 16.41458189 9714
Meteor 1-6 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.8 v 193 x 187 km
1 04583U 70085A 99006.04868136 .02153608 29324-2 44959-3 0 95491
2 04583 81.0974 354.9262 0004510 175.2633 184.7410 16.31033655550546
Meteor 1-6 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.8 v 177 x 173 km
1 04583U 70085A 99007.02882949 .03683031 93891-2 44562-3 0 95497
2 04583 81.0955 353.5581 0003305 171.3729 188.6328 16.36467596550707
Lacrosse 2 r 9.8 3.0 0.0 5.0 215 x 207 km
1 21148U 91017B 99006.02092887 .02108375 24843-2 83964-3 0 90873
2 21148 67.9486 289.4261 0006208 77.0851 282.9843 16.23320103 64461
Lacrosse 2 r 9.8 3.0 0.0 5.0 200 x 194 km
1 21148U 91017B 99007.00534024 .03304648 66239-2 84745-3 0 90871
2 21148 67.9469 286.1294 0004780 75.7891 284.2640 16.28458692 64622
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/