Decay watch update: January 4

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 4 Jan 1999 16:16:30 +0000

These SpaceCom decay notices are current or have been issued and 
superseded since my update yesterday:

Object                            Notice issued    Predicted decay
                                       UTC              UTC
     
#25421 = Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r     Jan  4 01:04     Jan  4 23:47 +-15h
#25421 = Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r     Jan  4 11:59     Jan  4 22:52 +-7h

#25532 = Iridium 2 Delta r        Jan  2 22:19     Jan  6 14:51 +-2d

 #4583 = Meteor 1-6               Jan  1 08:08     Jan  8 07:57 +-4d

#21148 = Lacrosse 2 r             Jan  1 21:20     Jan  8 17:30 +-4d

#25533 = Sputnik 41               Jan  4 10:29     Jan 11 06:17 +-6d

               -------------------------------

The Orbcomm 13 Pegasus (#25421) was 10.5 sec late at Jan 4.434 against
my prediction of yesterday. I now predict decay at January 4.93 (22:24
UTC +-3 hours).

Prediction:
Orbc13 Pegasus r 1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d            180 x 149 km
1 25421U 98046J   99004.67875082  .15359410  15504+0  72576-3 0 92541
2 25421  44.9137 191.3375 0023485 332.6510  27.2256 16.40379176 24133
Orbc13 Pegasus r 1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d            173 x 146 km
1 25421U 98046J   99004.73960731  .18937204  24986+0  63108-3 0 92545
2 25421  44.9132 190.9442 0020483 333.0697  26.8242 16.42448615 24142
Orbc13 Pegasus r 1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d            163 x 141 km
1 25421U 98046J   99004.80037780  .25279346  48156+0  54719-3 0 92549
2 25421  44.9126 190.5501 0016962 333.4892  26.4242 16.45092442 24158
Orbc13 Pegasus r 1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d            150 x 134 km
1 25421U 98046J   99004.86103273  .40407917  13856+1  48282-3 0 92548
2 25421  44.9117 190.1550 0012494 333.9097  26.0273 16.48910787 24161
Orbc13 Pegasus r 1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d            122 x 116 km
1 25421U 98046J   99004.92148992 1.75463722  30188+2  60921-3 0 92549
2 25421  44.9102 189.7580 0004922 334.3323  25.6433 16.57721426 24170

The final rev in this evolution takes it northbound over the equator at
22:07 near 114 deg E longitude (over Borneo), then ~1,000 km SE of Tokyo
(22:18) and across the N Pacific. If it survives beyond my decay time,
it will overfly San Francisco in daylight at 22:36 UTC and Los Angeles
soon afterwards. The track then continues across Mexico and Central
America to a southbound crossing of the equator at 22:50 near 77 deg W
above Quito, Equador.

               -------------------------------

The current elset for the new Mars Polar Lander Delta 2 rocket is:

MPL Delta 2 r1                                   740 x 227 km
1 25607U 99001C   99004.61499499  .00243290  23261-5  83838-3 0    52
2 25607  25.8357 218.3926 0373720 235.3676 121.1099 15.27487213   112

My initial prediction is for decay about March 30. At preset, this
enters eclipse southbound near 3 deg S latitude at ~19:30h local time,
and it leaves eclipse while northbound near 20 deg S latitude at ~03:30h
local time.
               -------------------------------

My updated decay predictions (still slipping later) and predicted
elsets:

   #    Designation    Name               Predicted decay

 25532   98- 66 F   Iridium 2 Delta r      January  7.3 +-0.6d
  4583   70- 85 A   Meteor 1-6             January  8.2 +-0.7d
 21148   91- 17 B   Lacrosse 2 r           January  8.7 +-0.9d
 25533   98- 62 C   Sputnik 41             January 10.7 +-1.5d

Iridm 2 Delta r  5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            251 x 184 km
1 25532U 98066F   99005.03755473  .02475682  27022-2  92396-3 0 91344
2 25532  82.4389 247.3777 0050932 118.4504 242.0637 16.20913967  9391
Iridm 2 Delta r  5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            226 x 176 km
1 25532U 98066F   99006.02363326  .03802976  76513-2  94371-3 0 91341
2 25532  82.4368 246.2237 0038592 114.4456 245.9575 16.26880713  9556

Meteor 1-6       5.0  1.5  0.0  5.8 v            203 x 197 km
1 04583U 70085A   99005.00441828  .01500744  13483-2  44157-3 0 95430
2 04583  81.1195 356.3204 0003907 163.8309 196.1816 16.27267776550372
Meteor 1-6       5.0  1.5  0.0  5.8 v            192 x 188 km
1 04583U 70085A   99006.04870014  .02108457  28071-2  44402-3 0 95436
2 04583  81.1181 354.8757 0003208 159.7098 200.3029 16.30959329550545


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
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