Decay watch update: January 4
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 4 Jan 1999 16:16:30 +0000
These SpaceCom decay notices are current or have been issued and
superseded since my update yesterday:
Object Notice issued Predicted decay
UTC UTC
#25421 = Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r Jan 4 01:04 Jan 4 23:47 +-15h
#25421 = Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r Jan 4 11:59 Jan 4 22:52 +-7h
#25532 = Iridium 2 Delta r Jan 2 22:19 Jan 6 14:51 +-2d
#4583 = Meteor 1-6 Jan 1 08:08 Jan 8 07:57 +-4d
#21148 = Lacrosse 2 r Jan 1 21:20 Jan 8 17:30 +-4d
#25533 = Sputnik 41 Jan 4 10:29 Jan 11 06:17 +-6d
-------------------------------
The Orbcomm 13 Pegasus (#25421) was 10.5 sec late at Jan 4.434 against
my prediction of yesterday. I now predict decay at January 4.93 (22:24
UTC +-3 hours).
Prediction:
Orbc13 Pegasus r 1.3 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 180 x 149 km
1 25421U 98046J 99004.67875082 .15359410 15504+0 72576-3 0 92541
2 25421 44.9137 191.3375 0023485 332.6510 27.2256 16.40379176 24133
Orbc13 Pegasus r 1.3 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 173 x 146 km
1 25421U 98046J 99004.73960731 .18937204 24986+0 63108-3 0 92545
2 25421 44.9132 190.9442 0020483 333.0697 26.8242 16.42448615 24142
Orbc13 Pegasus r 1.3 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 163 x 141 km
1 25421U 98046J 99004.80037780 .25279346 48156+0 54719-3 0 92549
2 25421 44.9126 190.5501 0016962 333.4892 26.4242 16.45092442 24158
Orbc13 Pegasus r 1.3 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 150 x 134 km
1 25421U 98046J 99004.86103273 .40407917 13856+1 48282-3 0 92548
2 25421 44.9117 190.1550 0012494 333.9097 26.0273 16.48910787 24161
Orbc13 Pegasus r 1.3 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 122 x 116 km
1 25421U 98046J 99004.92148992 1.75463722 30188+2 60921-3 0 92549
2 25421 44.9102 189.7580 0004922 334.3323 25.6433 16.57721426 24170
The final rev in this evolution takes it northbound over the equator at
22:07 near 114 deg E longitude (over Borneo), then ~1,000 km SE of Tokyo
(22:18) and across the N Pacific. If it survives beyond my decay time,
it will overfly San Francisco in daylight at 22:36 UTC and Los Angeles
soon afterwards. The track then continues across Mexico and Central
America to a southbound crossing of the equator at 22:50 near 77 deg W
above Quito, Equador.
-------------------------------
The current elset for the new Mars Polar Lander Delta 2 rocket is:
MPL Delta 2 r1 740 x 227 km
1 25607U 99001C 99004.61499499 .00243290 23261-5 83838-3 0 52
2 25607 25.8357 218.3926 0373720 235.3676 121.1099 15.27487213 112
My initial prediction is for decay about March 30. At preset, this
enters eclipse southbound near 3 deg S latitude at ~19:30h local time,
and it leaves eclipse while northbound near 20 deg S latitude at ~03:30h
local time.
-------------------------------
My updated decay predictions (still slipping later) and predicted
elsets:
# Designation Name Predicted decay
25532 98- 66 F Iridium 2 Delta r January 7.3 +-0.6d
4583 70- 85 A Meteor 1-6 January 8.2 +-0.7d
21148 91- 17 B Lacrosse 2 r January 8.7 +-0.9d
25533 98- 62 C Sputnik 41 January 10.7 +-1.5d
Iridm 2 Delta r 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.6 d 251 x 184 km
1 25532U 98066F 99005.03755473 .02475682 27022-2 92396-3 0 91344
2 25532 82.4389 247.3777 0050932 118.4504 242.0637 16.20913967 9391
Iridm 2 Delta r 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.6 d 226 x 176 km
1 25532U 98066F 99006.02363326 .03802976 76513-2 94371-3 0 91341
2 25532 82.4368 246.2237 0038592 114.4456 245.9575 16.26880713 9556
Meteor 1-6 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.8 v 203 x 197 km
1 04583U 70085A 99005.00441828 .01500744 13483-2 44157-3 0 95430
2 04583 81.1195 356.3204 0003907 163.8309 196.1816 16.27267776550372
Meteor 1-6 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.8 v 192 x 188 km
1 04583U 70085A 99006.04870014 .02108457 28071-2 44402-3 0 95436
2 04583 81.1181 354.8757 0003208 159.7098 200.3029 16.30959329550545
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/