Decay watch update: January 3
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 3 Jan 1999 18:18:21 +0000
These SpaceCom decay notices are current or have been issued and
superseded since my update yesterday.
Object Notice issued Predicted decay
UTC UTC
#25421 = Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r Jan 3 00:42 Jan 5 00:22 +-1d
#25532 = Iridium 2 Delta r Jan 2 22:19 Jan 6 14:51 +-2d
#4583 = Meteor 1-6 Jan 1 08:08 Jan 8 07:57 +-4d
#21148 = Lacrosse 2 r Jan 1 21:20 Jan 8 17:30 +-4d
#25533 = Sputnik 41 Dec 30 20:36 Jan 9 21:00 +-6d
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Against the evolution I posted yesterday, the Orbcomm 13 Pegasus was
running 7.5 seconds early at an elset for 99003.576. I still predict
decay for January 4.9, now +-0.25 day. New prediction:
Orbc13 Pegasus r 1.3 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 221 x 168 km
1 25421U 98046J 99004.00617927 .05532391 16232-1 94762-3 0 92519
2 25421 44.9099 195.6419 0040418 332.2246 27.5602 16.29278788 24023
Orbc13 Pegasus r 1.3 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 201 x 161 km
1 25421U 98046J 99004.37350364 .08609135 46107-1 96249-3 0 92518
2 25421 44.9086 193.3003 0030845 334.7173 25.1321 16.34283454 24082
Orbc13 Pegasus r 1.3 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 174 x 149 km
1 25421U 98046J 99004.67849804 .18104391 22852+0 73163-3 0 92517
2 25421 44.9066 191.3396 0019619 336.8048 23.1065 16.41691818 24137
Orbc13 Pegasus r 1.3 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 133 x 124 km
1 25421U 98046J 99004.86051392 .92949757 10048+2 51999-3 0 92519
2 25421 44.9037 190.1546 0006812 338.0665 21.9041 16.54193286 24162
-------------------------------
The Iridium 2 Delta rocket was only 1.7 seconds early at 99003.552.
My decay prediction is little changed at January 7.0 +-0.7 day.
Predicted elsets:
Iridm 2 Delta r 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.6 d 266 x 190 km
1 25532U 98066F 99004.04838933 .02016402 17884-2 98227-3 0 91319
2 25532 82.4397 248.5222 0057848 122.5835 237.9764 16.16889510 9232
Iridm 2 Delta r 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.6 d 247 x 184 km
1 25532U 98066F 99005.03726911 .02758123 34428-2 10129-2 0 91311
2 25532 82.4380 247.3727 0047476 118.5936 241.8849 16.21534259 9392
-------------------------------
At an elset for 99003.588, Meteor 1-6 was running 4.7 seconds late on
yesterday's prediction. I now predict decay for January 8.0 +-0.9 day.
Prediction:
Meteor 1-6 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.8 v 209 x 204 km
1 04583U 70085A 99004.01967574 .01254361 90793-3 45892-3 0 95372
2 04583 81.1208 357.6805 0003964 140.5455 219.4834 16.24710224550215
Meteor 1-6 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.8 v 202 x 197 km
1 04583U 70085A 99005.00431899 .01603278 15411-2 46272-3 0 95379
2 04583 81.1198 356.3244 0003439 136.6760 223.3510 16.27493621550372
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/