SatEvo decay list #68

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 3 Jan 1999 18:16:19 +0000

SatEvo decay list #68  (issued 1999 January 3)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses 
is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L,
and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
   http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html

The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published 
orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. 
Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate 
their decay by 1999 February 28, although some larger and/or more 
interesting decayers are included beyond that date.

This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via 
my SatEvo page at
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all
the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus
elsets for other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle, 
and all newly launched and/or catalogued objects.


   #    Designation    Name              ---- Decay (1998/9) ----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

  3508   68- 91 E   Cosmos 249 deb                 December 21.19
 24624   94- 29 AAC STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December 22?  Notes 2,3
  9794   70-102 F   Cosmos 381 r deb               December 23.0
 25210   87- 68 AM  Meteor 2-16 deb                December 23.0
 25582   98- 74 F   Iridium 11A CZ deb             December 23.3
 24178   94- 29 JD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December 23
 25583   98- 74 G   Iridium 11A CZ deb             December 23.7
 25581   98- 74 E   Iridium 11A CZ deb             December 24.1
 25584   98- 74 H   Iridium 11A CZ deb             December 24.5
  3381   65- 82 MT  OV2-1/LCS 2 deb                December 28   Note 3
 24475   94- 29 TY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December 28   Note 3
 25120   97- 84 J   Orbcomm 9 Pegasus r            December 28.60 Note 4
 23539   95- 16 D   Brazilsat B2 Spelda            December 29.12
 25572   98- 73 B   MCO Delta 2 r1                 December 29.84
  2988   65- 82 MT  OV2-1/LCS 2 deb                December 30
  9974   68- 97 DW  Cosmos 252 deb                 December 30.9
 25596   98- 77 D   C 2362 Proton r                December 31.24
 25597   98- 77 E   C 2362 Proton plat             December 31.28
 24101   94- 29 EY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December 31
 24693   94- 29 ABB STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December 31?  Notes 2,3
 25190   87- 68 R   Meteor 2-16 deb                December 31?  Notes 2,3
 25441   94- 29 ADW STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December 31   Note 3
 24670   96- 69 A   Cosmos 2335                     January  1.15 Note 5
  4610   70- 25 N   Nimbus 4 Agena deb              January  1
 25591   98- 77 M   C 2362 Proton deb               January  1
 25602   98- 77 K   C 2362 Proton deb               January  1
 25603   98- 77 L   C 2362 Proton deb               January  1
 22492   92- 93 GB  Cosmos 2227 deb                 January  2
 25599   98- 77 G   C 2362 Proton deb               January  2
 24086   94- 29 EH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January  4
 24345   94- 29 NW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January  4
 25192   87- 68 T   Meteor 2-16 deb        January  4
 25421   98- 46 J   Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r   January  4
 21083   90- 81 CJ  FY-1B CZ-4 deb         January  5
 24159   94- 29 HJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January  6
 25455   87- 68 CC  Meteor 2-16 deb        January  6? Note 2
 25532   98- 66 F   Iridium 2 Delta r      January  7
  4583   70- 85 A   Meteor 1-6             January  8
 21148   91- 17 B   Lacrosse 2 r           January  8
 25440   94- 29 ADV STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January  8
 25230   87- 68 BH  Meteor 2-16 deb        January  9? Note 2
 25247   87- 68 BQ  Meteor 2-16 deb        January  9
 25533   98- 62 C   Sputnik 41             January 10
 23066   89- 89 BM  COBE deb               January 11? Note 2
 22896   83 -75 N   Cosmos 1484 deb        January 12
 23974   94- 29 U   STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 12
 24532   94- 29 WG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 13
 25193   87- 68 U   Meteor 2-16 deb        January 14
 25211   87- 68 AN  Meteor 2-16 deb        January 15
 24038   94- 29 CK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 19
 25579   98- 74 C   Iridium 11A CZ-2C r    January 19
  3564   68- 97 Q   Cosmos 252 deb         January 20
 23972   94- 29 S   STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 20
 24542   94- 29 WS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 20
 24019   94- 29 BQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 21
 25186   87- 68 M   Meteor 2-16 deb        January 21
 24369   94- 29 PW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 22
 25065   97- 74 C   ETS-7 r                January 22
 25217   87- 68 AU  Meteor 2-16 deb        January 22
 24565   94- 29 XR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 25
 16187   85- 99 A   Molniya 1-65           January 24?
 19145   87- 20 BE  Cosmos 1823 deb        January 24
 24405   94- 29 RJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 24
 23075   89- 89 BW  COBE deb               January 27
  5399   71- 67 L   OV1-20/OV1-21 deb      January 28
 22440   92- 93 EH  C 2227 Zenit deb      February  1
 25213   87- 68 AQ  Meteor 2-16 deb       February  3
 23993   94- 29 AP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February  4
 24228   94- 29 LB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February  4
 25197   87- 68 Y   Meteor 2-16 deb       February  5
 19771   89-  4 E   Gorizont 17 aux mot   February  7
 14356   81- 53 HS  Cosmos 1275 deb       February  9
 23529   95- 13 B   Intlst 705 Centaur r  February  9?
 24270   94- 29 MV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February 10
 25452   87- 68 BZ  Meteor 2-16 deb       February 10
 22584   93- 17 D   GPS 2-19 r2           February 11
   175   61- 15 AZ  Transit 4a r deb      February 12
 25207   87- 68 AJ  Meteor 2-16 deb       February 13
 24224   94- 29 KX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February 14
 15440   84-123 B   NOAA 9 deb            February 16
 24430   94- 29 SJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February 16
 25182   87- 68 H   Meteor 2-16 deb       February 16
 25562   98- 71 C   SWAS Pegasus deb      February 16
 25218   87- 68 AV  Meteor 2-16 deb       February 22
 16683   86- 31 A   Molniya 3-28          February 23?
 23907   96- 29 B   NOSS 2-3 r            February 25
 25245   87- 68 BN  Meteor 2-16 deb       February 25
 25472   98- 51 F   Iridium 82 Delta r       March  1
 25166   98-  8 E   Globalstar 1 Delta r     March 17
  7418   74- 66 B   Cosmos 673 r             March 22
 14329   83- 94 B   Satcom 2R Delta r        March 27
  8755   76- 24 B   Cosmos 808 r             April  9
 22583   93- 17 C   GPS 2-19 r1              April 13
 12519   81- 54 E   Molniya 3-16 r2          April
 25580   98- 74 D   Iridm 11A Smart Disp     April
  4120   69- 84 B   Meteor 1-2 r               May
 23186   94- 43 B   APStar 1 CZ-3 r            May
 25347   98- 32 F   Iridium 70 Delta r         May
 20352   89- 96 A   Granat                    June
 16609   86- 17 A   Mir                  September   Note 1


Notes

1. Mir was raised from a 355x344 km orbit to one of 367x354 km on 
December 24. The predicted decay in September, above, is on the 
basis that there are no further manoeuvres before drag brings it
down normally. In fact, I understand that at least one further 
orbital boost is planned.

2. No recent elsets.

3. USSPACECOM has yet to confirm this decay.

4. #25120 was identified incorrectly as "Orbcomm 9 Pegasus r" in 
my previous list.

5. SpaceCom claim that Cosmos 2335 decayed on January 1 at 
04:33 UTC +-37 min.

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/