SatEvo decay list #68 (issued 1999 January 3) This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe. Information about SeeSat-L is available at http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 1999 February 28, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date. This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle, and all newly launched and/or catalogued objects. # Designation Name ---- Decay (1998/9) ---- Predicted Actual? 3508 68- 91 E Cosmos 249 deb December 21.19 24624 94- 29 AAC STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 22? Notes 2,3 9794 70-102 F Cosmos 381 r deb December 23.0 25210 87- 68 AM Meteor 2-16 deb December 23.0 25582 98- 74 F Iridium 11A CZ deb December 23.3 24178 94- 29 JD STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 23 25583 98- 74 G Iridium 11A CZ deb December 23.7 25581 98- 74 E Iridium 11A CZ deb December 24.1 25584 98- 74 H Iridium 11A CZ deb December 24.5 3381 65- 82 MT OV2-1/LCS 2 deb December 28 Note 3 24475 94- 29 TY STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 28 Note 3 25120 97- 84 J Orbcomm 9 Pegasus r December 28.60 Note 4 23539 95- 16 D Brazilsat B2 Spelda December 29.12 25572 98- 73 B MCO Delta 2 r1 December 29.84 2988 65- 82 MT OV2-1/LCS 2 deb December 30 9974 68- 97 DW Cosmos 252 deb December 30.9 25596 98- 77 D C 2362 Proton r December 31.24 25597 98- 77 E C 2362 Proton plat December 31.28 24101 94- 29 EY STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 31 24693 94- 29 ABB STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 31? Notes 2,3 25190 87- 68 R Meteor 2-16 deb December 31? Notes 2,3 25441 94- 29 ADW STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 31 Note 3 24670 96- 69 A Cosmos 2335 January 1.15 Note 5 4610 70- 25 N Nimbus 4 Agena deb January 1 25591 98- 77 M C 2362 Proton deb January 1 25602 98- 77 K C 2362 Proton deb January 1 25603 98- 77 L C 2362 Proton deb January 1 22492 92- 93 GB Cosmos 2227 deb January 2 25599 98- 77 G C 2362 Proton deb January 2 24086 94- 29 EH STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 4 24345 94- 29 NW STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 4 25192 87- 68 T Meteor 2-16 deb January 4 25421 98- 46 J Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r January 4 21083 90- 81 CJ FY-1B CZ-4 deb January 5 24159 94- 29 HJ STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 6 25455 87- 68 CC Meteor 2-16 deb January 6? Note 2 25532 98- 66 F Iridium 2 Delta r January 7 4583 70- 85 A Meteor 1-6 January 8 21148 91- 17 B Lacrosse 2 r January 8 25440 94- 29 ADV STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 8 25230 87- 68 BH Meteor 2-16 deb January 9? Note 2 25247 87- 68 BQ Meteor 2-16 deb January 9 25533 98- 62 C Sputnik 41 January 10 23066 89- 89 BM COBE deb January 11? Note 2 22896 83 -75 N Cosmos 1484 deb January 12 23974 94- 29 U STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 12 24532 94- 29 WG STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 13 25193 87- 68 U Meteor 2-16 deb January 14 25211 87- 68 AN Meteor 2-16 deb January 15 24038 94- 29 CK STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 19 25579 98- 74 C Iridium 11A CZ-2C r January 19 3564 68- 97 Q Cosmos 252 deb January 20 23972 94- 29 S STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 20 24542 94- 29 WS STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 20 24019 94- 29 BQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 21 25186 87- 68 M Meteor 2-16 deb January 21 24369 94- 29 PW STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 22 25065 97- 74 C ETS-7 r January 22 25217 87- 68 AU Meteor 2-16 deb January 22 24565 94- 29 XR STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 25 16187 85- 99 A Molniya 1-65 January 24? 19145 87- 20 BE Cosmos 1823 deb January 24 24405 94- 29 RJ STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 24 23075 89- 89 BW COBE deb January 27 5399 71- 67 L OV1-20/OV1-21 deb January 28 22440 92- 93 EH C 2227 Zenit deb February 1 25213 87- 68 AQ Meteor 2-16 deb February 3 23993 94- 29 AP STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 4 24228 94- 29 LB STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 4 25197 87- 68 Y Meteor 2-16 deb February 5 19771 89- 4 E Gorizont 17 aux mot February 7 14356 81- 53 HS Cosmos 1275 deb February 9 23529 95- 13 B Intlst 705 Centaur r February 9? 24270 94- 29 MV STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 10 25452 87- 68 BZ Meteor 2-16 deb February 10 22584 93- 17 D GPS 2-19 r2 February 11 175 61- 15 AZ Transit 4a r deb February 12 25207 87- 68 AJ Meteor 2-16 deb February 13 24224 94- 29 KX STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 14 15440 84-123 B NOAA 9 deb February 16 24430 94- 29 SJ STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 16 25182 87- 68 H Meteor 2-16 deb February 16 25562 98- 71 C SWAS Pegasus deb February 16 25218 87- 68 AV Meteor 2-16 deb February 22 16683 86- 31 A Molniya 3-28 February 23? 23907 96- 29 B NOSS 2-3 r February 25 25245 87- 68 BN Meteor 2-16 deb February 25 25472 98- 51 F Iridium 82 Delta r March 1 25166 98- 8 E Globalstar 1 Delta r March 17 7418 74- 66 B Cosmos 673 r March 22 14329 83- 94 B Satcom 2R Delta r March 27 8755 76- 24 B Cosmos 808 r April 9 22583 93- 17 C GPS 2-19 r1 April 13 12519 81- 54 E Molniya 3-16 r2 April 25580 98- 74 D Iridm 11A Smart Disp April 4120 69- 84 B Meteor 1-2 r May 23186 94- 43 B APStar 1 CZ-3 r May 25347 98- 32 F Iridium 70 Delta r May 20352 89- 96 A Granat June 16609 86- 17 A Mir September Note 1 Notes 1. Mir was raised from a 355x344 km orbit to one of 367x354 km on December 24. The predicted decay in September, above, is on the basis that there are no further manoeuvres before drag brings it down normally. In fact, I understand that at least one further orbital boost is planned. 2. No recent elsets. 3. USSPACECOM has yet to confirm this decay. 4. #25120 was identified incorrectly as "Orbcomm 9 Pegasus r" in my previous list. 5. SpaceCom claim that Cosmos 2335 decayed on January 1 at 04:33 UTC +-37 min. Alan -- Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144 Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/