Decay watch update: New Year's Day
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 1 Jan 1999 18:17:55 +0000
These SpaceCom decay notices are current or have been issued and
superseded since my update yesterday:
Object Notice issued Predicted decay
UTC UTC
#25603 = C 2362 Proton deb L Dec 31 18:02 Jan 1 01:54 +-6h
#25602 = C 2362 Proton deb K Dec 31 18:02 Jan 1 03:39 +-7h
#24670 = Cosmos 2335 Dec 31 19:57 Jan 1 02:26 +-5h
#24670 = Cosmos 2335 Jan 1 00:47 Jan 1 02:55 +-2h
#24670 = Cosmos 2335 Jan 1 05:42 Jan 1 04:33 +-37m
#25421 = Orbcomm 13 Pegasus r Dec 31 22:40 Jan 4 21:01 +-2d
#25532 = Iridium 2 Delta r Dec 30 18:20 Jan 6 17:52 +-4d
#4583 = Meteor 1-6 Jan 1 08:08 Jan 8 07:57 +-4d
#25533 = Sputnik 41 Dec 30 20:36 Jan 9 21:00 +-6d
-------------------------------
It seems we were all caught out by the longevity of Cosmos 2335. My
final (clearly inebriated!) SatEvo prediction (made 8 hours earlier)
had decay forecast for December 31.99 (23:50 UTC +-2h). Re-entry,
if SpaceCom is correct, came at January 1 04:33 UTC +-37 minutes.
The final (highest-numbered) elset, one of three issued for the nodal
crossing, was:
Cosmos 2335 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 v 118 x 107 km
1 24670U 96069A 99001.12741337 .99999999 78494-5 33829-3 0 2154
2 24670 65.0141 273.1274 0008319 249.2722 110.5261 16.60290174116609
This epoch corresponds to 03:03 UTC and I think it unlikely that Cosmos
2335 could have lasted for the additional 90 minutes, more than one
orbit, implied by SpaceCom's final decay notice. My own analysis implies
decay at January 1.146 03:30 UTC.
-------------------------------
Four of the debris objects from the Cosmos 2362/3/4 launch are rapid
decayers, and three have probably decayed today, January 1. These are
the two mentioned above, the K and L objects, plus #25591 = 1998- 77 M.
There are too few elsets for these to be sure of the decay times, but
the times given above for K and L look reasonable. M may have decayed
at about January 1.6. The fourth object, #25599 = 1998- 77 G, may
survive until the 2nd.
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/