Cosmos 2335 decayed

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OIG (SpaceCom) reported a decay of 1996-069A (24670) Cosmos 2335 at
               Jan 1, 04:33 UTC -/- 37 minutes (4.7°N, 106.9° E)
It was on a northbound pass with the final daylight path over Sumatra, Malaysia 
and the South Chinese Sea. 
The long lifetime during the last 24 hours was unexpected at least from my 
prediction methods. Only the SPG4 analytical program - based only on the input
of the ELSETs - shows a strong tendency for a reentry in the morning hours 
(Jan 1, 10:30 UTC).
MPM works only with the ELSETs 365.884... and 365.945... and gave a decay at
Dec 31, 00:08 UTC +/- 90 minutes.
ELSET 99001.1274....  was completely useless (wrong ndot and ArPer) 
ELSETs 99001.1275... and 99001.1279 don't works with MPM. It delivers
"Decay before or around epoch time". Also small changes (10%) of important 
input parameters like effective drag surface area or mass gave the same result.
The last released ELSET (99001.1279) is only in part reliable. The ArPer seems
definitely wrong.

Harro

Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de            

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