Re: Decaying NEAR and Iridium rockets

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 16 Jan 1998 21:10:11 +0000

The most recent elset from OIG for the decaying NEAR Delta 2 rocket...
NEAR r           5.4  2.9  0.0  5.5 d            350 x 136 km
1 23785U 96008B   98016.73345213  .09024453 -10590-4  45086-3 0  5247
2 23785  25.8851 119.7867 0161799  34.4560 326.8840 16.11486532 78261
...shows it running 29 seconds early against the "9519" satEvo evolution
I posted here yesterday.

My current calculations still show decay at about January 17.85 (~20:20
UTC +-4h). Predictions:
NEAR r           5.4  2.9  0.0  5.5 d            338 x 136 km
1 23785U 96008B   98016.85713557  .09721521  15961-1  46444-3 0 95241
2 23785  25.8847 118.8112 0152633  36.1079 324.9134 16.13783816 78284
NEAR r           5.4  2.9  0.0  5.5 d            317 x 135 km
1 23785U 96008B   98017.04238463  .10893891  25218-1  47811-3 0 95248
2 23785  25.8841 117.3439 0137769  38.5927 322.3841 16.17586768 78317
NEAR r           5.4  2.9  0.0  5.5 d            286 x 134 km
1 23785U 96008B   98017.28864311  .13312118  44068-1  49749-3 0 95248
2 23785  25.8831 115.3799 0115074  41.9187 318.9569 16.23495763 78357
NEAR r           5.4  2.9  0.0  5.5 d            247 x 133 km
1 23785U 96008B   98017.53388112  .17792020  72219-1  51064-3 0 95246
2 23785  25.8818 113.4055 0086762  45.2623 315.4408 16.31048934 78390
NEAR r           5.4  2.9  0.0  5.5 d            206 x 131 km
1 23785U 96008B   98017.71693369  .29765089  55160+0  59629-3 0 95246
2 23785  25.8806 111.9157 0057109  47.7852 312.6981 16.39065538 78423
NEAR r           5.4  2.9  0.0  5.5 d            185 x 129 km
1 23785U 96008B   98017.77770533  .45066469  13954+1  66288-3 0 95240
2 23785  25.8799 111.4166 0042947  48.6305 311.7381 16.43466743 78439
NEAR r           5.4  2.9  0.0  5.5 d            147 x 120 km
1 23785U 96008B   98017.83824479 1.41209878  19497+2  88266-3 0 95245
2 23785  25.8788 110.9151 0020679  49.4797 310.7002 16.52229797 78443
              -------------------------------------

The Long March rocket was running 1.2 second late on my prediction at
the time of its latest elset:
Iridm CZ-2C r   10.0  3.0  0.0  3.0 d            302 x 157 km
1 25079U 97077C   98016.57744712  .01872439 -13114-5  36103-3 0  1071
2 25079  86.2769 100.7859 0109854  13.1065 347.3081 16.16317956  6171

My current prediction for re-entry remains January 20.7, now +-0.6day.
SatEvo evolution:
Iridm CZ-2C r   10.0  3.0  0.0  3.0 d            294 x 156 km
1 25079U 97077C   98017.01059111  .02007855  10814-2  35280-3 0 91070
2 25079  86.2763 100.5380 0103954  11.2385 348.9921 16.18020895  6244
Iridm CZ-2C r   10.0  3.0  0.0  3.0 d            283 x 156 km
1 25079U 97077C   98017.50506773  .02190393  13689-2  34302-3 0 91072
2 25079  86.2756 100.2543 0096779   9.1003 351.0741 16.20092724  6320
Iridm CZ-2C r   10.0  3.0  0.0  3.0 d            270 x 154 km
1 25079U 97077C   98018.06056244  .02441998  16653-2  32851-3 0 91078
2 25079  86.2746  99.9344 0088025   6.6903 353.4265 16.22661465  6411

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W    156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:      alan@wingar.demon.co.uk       +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/