Re: Decaying NEAR and Iridium rockets

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 15 Jan 1998 20:49:41 +0000

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The latest elsets from OIG for these decayers are:
NEAR r           5.4  2.9  0.0  5.5 d            431 x 140 km
1 23785U 96008B   98015.73780275  .06063444 -10316-4  48380-3 0  5197
2 23785  25.8888 127.5637 0218078  21.5109 339.4510 15.96135402 78108
Iridm CZ-2C r   10.0  3.0  0.0  3.0 d            319 x 159 km
1 25079U 97077C   98015.58575155  .01622524 -13255-5  38903-3 0  1034
2 25079  86.2764 101.3517 0121393  17.4261 343.1138 16.12845614  6014

The first elset above shows the NEAR rocket running 127 seconds early
against the prediction I posted here two days ago. My latest analysis
points to decay at January 17.9 +-0.4day. Predictions:
NEAR r           5.4  2.9  0.0  5.5 d            409 x 140 km
1 23785U 96008B   98016.04996498  .06669795  63837-2  50058-3 0 95196
2 23785  25.8881 125.1522 0202024  25.5944 335.3921 16.00143014 78153
NEAR r           5.4  2.9  0.0  5.5 d            369 x 139 km
1 23785U 96008B   98016.54770006  .07938358  10406-1  52553-3 0 95196
2 23785  25.8869 121.2766 0173379  32.1572 328.8887 16.07370144 78237
NEAR r           5.4  2.9  0.0  5.5 d            322 x 138 km
1 23785U 96008B   98017.04295637  .10053379  21401-1  54737-3 0 95192
2 23785  25.8854 117.3764 0139140  38.7618 322.2284 16.16147712 78317


The Long March rocket is 4 seconds early against my prediction.
My current forecast is for decay at January 20.7 +-0.8day.
SatEvo predictions for this one:
Iridm CZ-2C r   10.0  3.0  0.0  3.0 d            312 x 158 km
1 25079U 97077C   98016.01985421  .01754496  74972-3  39028-3 0 91036
2 25079  86.2759 101.1045 0116093  15.5635 344.7907 16.14342578  6088
Iridm CZ-2C r   10.0  3.0  0.0  3.0 d            303 x 158 km
1 25079U 97077C   98016.51549481  .01876586  89851-3  38086-3 0 91033
2 25079  86.2752 100.8216 0109731  13.4319 346.8579 16.16140443  6160
Iridm CZ-2C r   10.0  3.0  0.0  3.0 d            293 x 157 km
1 25079U 97077C   98017.01056613  .02024779  11070-2  37047-3 0 91032
2 25079  86.2745 100.5383 0102983  11.2971 348.9325 16.18069370  6248

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W    156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:      alan@wingar.demon.co.uk       +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/

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