Hello all; Some days ago some rumours appeared about a possible new launch of DPRK. Those rumours has been confirmed by NOTAMs and HIDROPACs. HIDROPACs points the launch starting february 7th till february 24, with a daily launch window starting 22:30 UTC and finishing at 03:30 UTC of the next day. The launch is suposed that will be from Sohae Launch Station (39.659996, 124.705303). In theory, DPRK can launch from Musudan-ri too (40.855762°, 129.665907°), but this second option can be discarded as NOTAMs does not match with this launch site and because the rocket would overfly Japan territory. Unha-3 is a three stage rocket, all of them uses hipergolic fuel and it can carry nearly 100 Kg to a sun-syncronous, 500Km circular orbit launched from Sohae. The first stage is based on the Nodong missile, that is based previously on the soviet Scud-D. The second stage is based on a R-27 missile. The third stage has been developed by North Korea. The previous launch occurred the 2012/12/12 at 0:51 UTC. The payload reached a 492x585, 97.404 degree orbit. The third stage and other two debris pieces were cataloged. The satellite (KMS 3-2) was in nearly 1:15 resonance, but drifting on RAAN. Back to next launch, the initial launch trajectory will be like this screenshot generated using Google Earth: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/32266013/unha-32016launch/1.JPG The small green box is the 1st stage impact zone, the yellow one the impact of the payload fairing and the red one corresponds to the impact zone of the second stage. As in the previous launch, the third stage is expected to reach orbit with the payload. Launch time: As mentioned before, the NOTAMs limits the launch times since 22:30 UTC till 03:30 UTC of the next day. Hoewer, this is a too-large time-span. The reasons for dont release the exact launch time could have some political, and technical reasons. During the first seconds of third stage burn, the rocket is expected to make a dog-leg maneuver, to reach the desired 97.40 degree inclination, just like in the previous launch. In the image above, the dog-leg sohuld occur between first stage impact zone and fairing impact zone. Assuming a similar orbit than in previous launch and same Descending Node, the launch window would start the 2016/02/07 _at_ 01:26:03 UTC. Every day the rocket should be launched 28 seconds before than previous day for achieve same Sun-Satellite RAAN. Satellite's height will be probably similar, also as the inclination and argument of perigee. Those are adapted previous launch TLE using previous launch, assuming liftoff at 2016/02/07 _at_ 01:26:02 UTC: Unha-3 estimation #0 491 X 585 km 1 70000U 16500A 16038.06738426 0.00000000 00000-0 00000+0 0 05 2 70000 97.4047 100.2271 0067405 176.5313 349.5073 15.08261084 07 As mentioned above, for mantain the RAAN it should lift-off 28 seconds before every day, so these are adapted parameters for next 4 days, starting Feb. 8: Feb. 8, launch _at_ 01:25:34 UTC: Unha-3 estimation F8 #1 491 X 585 km 1 70001U 16501A 16039.06706019 0.00000000 00000-0 00000+0 0 03 2 70001 97.4047 101.0962 0067405 176.5313 349.5073 15.08261084 04 Feb. 9, launch _at_ 01:25:06 UTC: Unha-3 estimation F9 #2 491 X 585 km 1 70002U 16502A 16040.06672454 0.00000000 00000-0 00000+0 0 02 2 70002 97.4047 101.9611 0067405 176.5313 349.5073 15.08261084 05 Feb. 10, launch _at_ 01:24:38 UTC: Unha-3 estimation F10 #3 491 X 585 km 1 70003U 16503A 16041.06641204 0.00000000 00000-0 00000+0 0 04 2 70003 97.4047 102.8343 0067405 176.5313 349.5073 15.08261084 08 Feb. 11, launch _at_ 01:24:10 UTC: Unha-3 estimation F11 #3 491 X 585 km 1 70004U 16504A 16042.06608796 0.00000000 00000-0 00000+0 0 06 2 70004 97.4047 103.7034 0067405 176.5313 349.5073 15.08261084 06 I will be updating these till Feb. 24. Please keep in mind that these orbit estimations assumes too much things that are doubtful (exact launch time, orbital parameters, launch vehicle, etc), so these elsets are indicative. Any suggestions, corrections, comments, doubts, etc. are welcome. References: Thanks to Bob Christy for allowing me using his KMS 3-2 launch's page for this post: http://www.zarya.info/Diaries/NKorea/Kwangmyongsong32.php http://danielmarin.naukas.com/2012/12/12/primer-lanzamiento-espacial-de-corea-del-norte-unha-3/ http://sattrackcam.blogspot.nl/2016/02/north-koreas-upcoming-satellite-launch.html Jon. -- Jon, COSPAR 6242, 42.9453, -2.82839, 623m, Bitoriano, Basque Country. _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-lReceived on Fri Feb 05 2016 - 02:48:16 UTC
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