USA 193 recovered

From: Ted Molczan (ssl2molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Sun Feb 17 2008 - 00:44:32 UTC

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    Ed Light has reported a possible observation of USA 193, which I have confirmed:
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat/Feb-2008/0288.html
    
    29651 06 057A   8840 P 20080216233501000 28 35 0639400-251000 18  +048 05
    
    Lakewood, NJ, USA
    Site 8840, N 40.1075, W 074.2312, +24 m (80 ft)
    
    It was surprisingly close to the prediction of my high-drag elset of Feb 11,
    0.65 s late, and within 0.05 deg of the track.
    
    1 29651U 06057A   08042.43411818  .00214910  00000-0  31472-3 0    05
    2 29651  58.4821  69.5983 0009338  66.1500 294.0578 16.04437931    07
    
    I had expected the rate of decay to decrease, so had offered the following
    low-drag version; however, the object was 79.6 early and within 0.14 deg of the
    predicted track.
    
    1 70000U          08042.43411819  .00170715  00000-0  25000-3 0    06
    2 70000  58.4821  69.5983 0009338  66.1500 294.0578 16.04437931    01
    
    Mike McCants also expected the rate of decay to decrease, and produced an elset
    similar to my low-drag version, shown below. The object was 61.3 s early, and
    within 0.63 deg of this elset.
    
    1 29651U 06057A   08042.43405801 0.00185000  00000-0  27300-3 0    02
    2 29651  58.5097  69.5541 0000897 125.0164 234.9836 16.04407073    09
    
    I will post updated elements later this evening; in the meantime, observers who
    run their own predictions are advised to use the first of the above elsets.
    Mike's elset is the one in use by Heavens-Above, so until he produces an update
    and it finds it way to H-A, observers should expect the object to be at least 1
    min early, and a bit off-track.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
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