Re: FY-1C debris

From: Laura Grego (lgrego@ucsusa.org)
Date: Tue Feb 06 2007 - 11:05:33 EST

  • Next message: Leo Barhorst: "LB obs 2007 Feb 6"

    FYI: there's an article on the FY1C debris on the front page of the
    NYTimes Science section, and it's also
    on the front page of NYTimes.com with a nice interactive graphic.
    
    My colleagues happened to be working this year on a project to quantify
    the debris that results from
    a catastrophic breakup of a satellite due to an ASAT weapon, using the
    NASA breakup model.  
    So they spent the past couple of weeks running the simulation for the
    specific mass and orbit for FY1C;
    if you are interested in the results, please take a look at the fact
    sheet at
    http://www.ucsusa.org/global_security/space_weapons/debris-from-chinas-asat-test.html
    
    Things I thought were most interesting from their work:
    
    *800 pieces of debris greater than 10 cm are predicted (these are the
    objects that should show up in space-track)
    
    *40,000 pieces of debris greater than 1 cm are predicted--these are
    unlikely to be tracked because they're too small, but they are
    big enough to cause significant damage in a collision
    
    *50% of these pieces greater than 1 cm will still be in orbit 20 years
    from now, a higher percentage of the 10 pieces will still be up there
    
    *800 large pieces of debris is equal to the debris that would be added
    to LEO in 30 to 40 years of space launches under “business as
    usual,” and 70 to 80 years of space activity if strict debris
    mitigation measures of the kind being discussed internationally are put
    in place.
    
    Also interesting is how quickly the debris pieces have been catalogued;
    the debris from the Solwind satellite ASAT test
    in 1985 took much much longer.  It seems that the SSN has improved.
    
    
    >>> Mgr. CSc. Antonín Vítek <AVitek@seznam.cz> 2/5/2007 6:03 AM >>>
    Debris now reads up to 1999-026ACB / 30364 (not yet in Space Track
    Catalogue, but in TLE DB).
    
    
      
    Mgr. Antonin Vitek, CSc.
    
    Office: Main Library, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
      Narodni 3, CZ-11522 Praha 1 - Phone: +420/221 403 255, fax +420/224
    240 611
    Home: Kytin 127, CZ-25210 Mnisek p. B., Czech Republic
    Phone: +420/318 592 865, cell +420/603 148 201 - Coord.: 14.2178 deg E,
    49.8485 deg N, 442 m ASL
    My satellite home page: http://www.lib.cas.cz/www/space.40/index.html 
    Office e-mail: AVITEK@LIB.CAS.CZ 
    
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