Here is a summary of the final notices on my Decay Watch page for
today's two decayers.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #18083 = 87- 48 A = Cosmos 1849
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Feb 3 23:41 Feb 3 22:27 +-7m 48.0 S 28.0 W
SatEvo Feb 4 20:30 Feb 3 22:22 -90+10m 32.3 S 44.9 W
Final elset:
Cosmos 1849 711 x 84 km
1 18083U 87048A 03034.85769382 .99999999 12294-5 13971-2 0 398
2 18083 61.8029 224.8485 0462929 215.5409 293.4758 15.56699164115512
Note: It is possible that this disintegrated soon after perigee on
the above orbit, though my evolution (and SCC's analysis) has it
surviving to the vicinity of the perigee in the next orbit, given
by the predicted elset:
Cosmos 1849 466 x 82 km
1 18083U 87048A 03034.89447191 6.26602581 38111+2 27609-2 0 90391
2 18083 61.7844 224.7033 0288733 215.5590 142.4824 16.00268608115527
If so, it decayed southbound over the SW Atlantic, to the SE of
Porto Alegre, Brazil.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27682 = 03- 6 B = Progress M-47 Soyuz r
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Feb 4 15:38 Feb 4 14:55 +-7m 33.0 N 0.0 E
SatEvo Feb 4 20:50 Feb 4 14:54 +-1d 28.2 N 7.5 W
Final elset:
Progress M-47 Soyuz r 155 x 139 km
1 27682U 03006B 03035.49366916 .21980138 12618-4 36681-3 0 182
2 27682 51.6600 326.2642 0011990 83.7957 276.5061 16.47078469 323
Note: I estimate that this decayed soon after the end of the orbit
following the one given by the final elset, above. My prediction
for that rev is:
Progress M-47 Soyuz r 138 x 127 km
1 27682U 03006B 03035.55419948 .60237869 38710+1 42180-3 0 90189
2 27682 51.6586 325.9174 0008068 84.0540 276.0379 16.52689652 332
This has it decaying northbound over the Canary Is.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo Home Page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Feb 04 2003 - 16:17:01 EST