An update from my Decay Watch page:
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #17031 = 86- 78 A = Cosmos 1785
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 28 01:48 Feb 28 00:20 +-7m 47.5 S 82.6 W
SatEvo Feb 28 21:50 Feb 28 00:17 +-15m 42.5 S 91.8 W
Final elset:
Cosmos 1785 355 x 49 km
1 17031U 86078A 02058.99455038 .99999999 72632-5 10206-3 0 3363
2 17031 61.5689 220.6925 0232767 228.8666 253.3107 16.26545452113107
Note: This lasted the extra orbit, though I am not convinced by the
implied perigee height in the final elset. Like SpaceCom, I show it
decaying while southbound to the W of Chile.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27383 = 02- 8 B = Cosmos 2387 Soyuz-U rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 28 21:16 Feb 28 23:15 +-7h 37.6 S 85.0 E
SatEvo Feb 28 22:45 Mar 1 00:19 +-4h 35.7 N 31.3 E
Latest elset:
Cosmos 2387 Soyuz-U r 232 x 142 km
1 27383U 02008B 02059.46471068 .09715559 61162-5 42631-3 0 267
2 27383 67.1150 34.1626 0068906 89.7873 51.4647 16.32129951 442
SatEvo prediction:
(..ends)
Cosmos 2387 Soyuz-U r 167 x 118 km
1 27383U 02008B 02059.92908850 .38059455 90596+0 30813-3 0 90265
2 27383 67.1095 32.5210 0037137 89.2731 271.1525 16.48775113 520
Cosmos 2387 Soyuz-U r 143 x 109 km
1 27383U 02008B 02059.98962719 .75340359 38139+1 33110-3 0 90261
2 27383 67.1078 32.3031 0026316 89.2049 271.0968 16.55102599 530
Note: The latest elset shows this running 5 sec late against the
prediction I posted yesterday. I have the decay southbound over Turkey
following a pass across Europe from S Norway at 00:12 UTC to Bulgaria
at 00:17. It is fair to point out that more recent elsets are long
overdue and the uncertainty is several hours.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Feb 28 2002 - 17:51:25 EST