Decay watch: 2002 February 28

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Feb 28 2002 - 17:50:24 EST

  • Next message: Daniel Deak: "Disco balls TLE, Feb. 28"

    An update from my Decay Watch page:
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #17031 = 86- 78 A = Cosmos 1785
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 28 01:48     Feb 28 00:20 +-7m        47.5 S    82.6 W
    SatEvo     Feb 28 21:50     Feb 28 00:17 +-15m       42.5 S    91.8 W
    
    Final elset:
    Cosmos 1785                                      355 x 49 km
    1 17031U 86078A   02058.99455038  .99999999  72632-5  10206-3 0  3363
    2 17031  61.5689 220.6925 0232767 228.8666 253.3107 16.26545452113107
    
    Note: This lasted the extra orbit, though I am not convinced by the
    implied perigee height in the final elset. Like SpaceCom, I show it
    decaying while southbound to the W of Chile.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27383 = 02-  8 B = Cosmos 2387 Soyuz-U rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 28 21:16     Feb 28 23:15 +-7h        37.6 S    85.0 E
    SatEvo     Feb 28 22:45     Mar  1 00:19 +-4h        35.7 N    31.3 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 2387 Soyuz-U r                            232 x 142 km
    1 27383U 02008B   02059.46471068  .09715559  61162-5  42631-3 0   267
    2 27383  67.1150  34.1626 0068906  89.7873  51.4647 16.32129951   442
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    (..ends)
    Cosmos 2387 Soyuz-U r                            167 x 118 km
    1 27383U 02008B   02059.92908850  .38059455  90596+0  30813-3 0 90265
    2 27383  67.1095  32.5210 0037137  89.2731 271.1525 16.48775113   520
    Cosmos 2387 Soyuz-U r                            143 x 109 km
    1 27383U 02008B   02059.98962719  .75340359  38139+1  33110-3 0 90261
    2 27383  67.1078  32.3031 0026316  89.2049 271.0968 16.55102599   530
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 5 sec late against the
    prediction I posted yesterday. I have the decay southbound over Turkey
    following a pass across Europe from S Norway at 00:12 UTC to Bulgaria
    at 00:17. It is fair to point out that more recent elsets are long
    overdue and the uncertainty is several hours.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    -----------------------------------------------------------------
    Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe'
    in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org
    http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    



    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Feb 28 2002 - 17:51:25 EST