A summary of my updated Decay Watch page.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #17031 = 86- 78 A = Cosmos 1785
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 27 16:54 Feb 27 22:59 +-4h 61.4 S 17.8 W
SatEvo Feb 27 22:10 Feb 27 22:52 -15m+80m 50.9 S 58.4 W
Latest elset:
Cosmos 1785 750 x 70 km
1 17031U 86078A 02058.90379630 .99999999 12799-5 61977-3 0 3344
2 17031 61.5977 220.9820 0500844 222.0015 99.4789 15.52195993113083
Note: Something rather drastic has occurred to delay this decay
significantly - perhaps the detachment of solar panels or other
appendages. I show this decaying southbound a little beyond perigee
on this orbit, over the Falkland Islands in the SW Atlantic. There
is an outside chance that it might survive for almost another orbit.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #24779 = 97- 18 A = Minisat-01
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 27 04:14 Feb 26 23:20 +-5h 28.5 N 99.9 E
SatEvo Feb 27 22:00 Feb 27 00:16 +-3h 14.7 S 170.5 W
Final elset:
Minisat-01 2.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 d 2.6 184 x 183 km
1 24779U 97018A 02057.59078704 .09452770 -40714-4 13899-2 0 2594
2 24779 150.9276 318.8937 0000493 218.3461 141.7843 16.33285336268566
Note: The final elset shows this running less than 1 sec late against
my final posted prediction but still with several orbits to go.
I put the decay over the central Pacific near the end of the second of
these SatEvo-predicted orbits:
Minisat-01 2.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 d 2.6 155 x 154 km
1 24779U 97018A 02057.89536516 .33249446 88239+0 13088-2 0 92595
2 24779 150.9257 321.3124 0001105 222.2472 137.7441 16.44334955268618
Minisat-01 2.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 d 2.6 140 x 139 km
1 24779U 97018A 02057.95595570 .72107726 51784+1 86187-3 0 92591
2 24779 150.9248 321.7996 0001158 223.0332 136.9576 16.50016242268625
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Object: #27383 = 02- 8 B = Cosmos 2387 Soyuz-U rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 26 04:26 Mar 1 04:07 +-2d 29.6 S 158.3 E
SpaceCom Feb 26 05:19 Mar 1 04:12 +-2d 13.2 S 165.3 E
SpaceCom Feb 26 22:28 Feb 28 22:51 +-1d 58.5 N 41.6 E
SatEvo Feb 26 17:45 Mar 1 02:41 +-18h
SatEvo Feb 27 22:20 Mar 1 00:25 +-18h 13.9 N 41.4 E
Latest elset:
Cosmos 2387 Soyuz-U r 282 x 154 km
1 27383U 02008B 02058.70255539 .04948314 59311-5 68044-3 0 155
2 27383 67.1168 36.8085 0096994 91.2324 269.9963 16.20654564 320
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed Feb 27 2002 - 17:39:31 EST