Decay watch: 2002 February 27

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Feb 27 2002 - 17:32:43 EST

  • Next message: Daniel Deak: "STS-109 launch delayed"

    A summary of my updated Decay Watch page.
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #17031 = 86- 78 A = Cosmos 1785
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 27 16:54     Feb 27 22:59 +-4h        61.4 S    17.8 W
    SatEvo     Feb 27 22:10     Feb 27 22:52 -15m+80m    50.9 S    58.4 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1785                                      750 x 70 km
    1 17031U 86078A   02058.90379630  .99999999  12799-5  61977-3 0  3344
    2 17031  61.5977 220.9820 0500844 222.0015  99.4789 15.52195993113083
    
    Note: Something rather drastic has occurred to delay this decay
    significantly - perhaps the detachment of solar panels or other
    appendages. I show this decaying southbound a little beyond perigee
    on this orbit, over the Falkland Islands in the SW Atlantic. There
    is an outside chance that it might survive for almost another orbit.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #24779 = 97- 18 A = Minisat-01
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 27 04:14     Feb 26 23:20 +-5h        28.5 N    99.9 E
    SatEvo     Feb 27 22:00     Feb 27 00:16 +-3h        14.7 S   170.5 W
    
    Final elset:
    Minisat-01       2.0  0.0  0.0  6.6 d  2.6       184 x 183 km
    1 24779U 97018A   02057.59078704  .09452770 -40714-4  13899-2 0  2594
    2 24779 150.9276 318.8937 0000493 218.3461 141.7843 16.33285336268566
    
    Note: The final elset shows this running less than 1 sec late against
    my final posted prediction but still with several orbits to go.
    I put the decay over the central Pacific near the end of the second of
    these SatEvo-predicted orbits:
    Minisat-01       2.0  0.0  0.0  6.6 d  2.6       155 x 154 km
    1 24779U 97018A   02057.89536516  .33249446  88239+0  13088-2 0 92595
    2 24779 150.9257 321.3124 0001105 222.2472 137.7441 16.44334955268618
    Minisat-01       2.0  0.0  0.0  6.6 d  2.6       140 x 139 km
    1 24779U 97018A   02057.95595570  .72107726  51784+1  86187-3 0 92591
    2 24779 150.9248 321.7996 0001158 223.0332 136.9576 16.50016242268625
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27383 = 02-  8 B = Cosmos 2387 Soyuz-U rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Feb 26 04:26     Mar  1 04:07 +-2d        29.6 S   158.3 E
    SpaceCom   Feb 26 05:19     Mar  1 04:12 +-2d        13.2 S   165.3 E
    SpaceCom   Feb 26 22:28     Feb 28 22:51 +-1d        58.5 N    41.6 E
    
    SatEvo     Feb 26 17:45     Mar  1 02:41 +-18h
    SatEvo     Feb 27 22:20     Mar  1 00:25 +-18h       13.9 N    41.4 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 2387 Soyuz-U r                            282 x 154 km
    1 27383U 02008B   02058.70255539  .04948314  59311-5  68044-3 0   155
    2 27383  67.1168  36.8085 0096994  91.2324 269.9963 16.20654564   320
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    -----------------------------------------------------------------
    Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe'
    in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org
    http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    



    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed Feb 27 2002 - 17:39:31 EST