Decay watch: 2002 February 26

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Feb 26 2002 - 12:53:32 EST

  • Next message: Harro Zimmer: "MINISAT 01 Decay Update"

    A summary of today's update to my Decay Watch page, including the new 
    Cosmos rocket. Find further predicted elsets on the page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #17031 = 86- 78 A = Cosmos 1785
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 26 11:56     Feb 27 08:56 +-1d        60.7 S   173.4 W
    SatEvo     Feb 26 17:20     Feb 27 10:39 +-5h        54.4 S   134.4 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1785                                      3164 x 89 km
    1 17031U 86078A   02057.65260527  .96579886 -10715-4  19238-2 0  3196
    2 17031  61.7003 224.7479 1920798 218.1509 126.4178 12.12367470112925
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    (..ends)
    Cosmos 1785                                      1179 x 77 km
    1 17031U 86078A   02058.33252224 3.46545983  45598+1  20211-2 0 93190
    2 17031  61.5728 222.8670 0786075 218.4048 135.7322 14.80476333113018
    Cosmos 1785                                      849 x 76 km
    1 17031U 86078A   02058.39923107 4.85433211  11028+2  21500-2 0 93199
    2 17031  61.5570 222.6276 0565477 218.4384 137.3961 15.34487791113025
    
    Note: The prediction is very uncertain. I put the decay far to the S
    of Australia following perigee on the last of the predicted orbits.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #24779 = 97- 18 A = Minisat-01
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 26 12:37     Feb 27 00:05 +-8h        29.1 S   101.0 W
    SatEvo     Feb 26 17:35     Feb 27 00:10 +-3h        23.2 S   146.8 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Minisat-01       2.0  0.0  0.0  6.6 d  2.6       192 x 189 km
    1 24779U 97018A   02057.46850197  .08781219 -40450-4  16367-2 0  2585
    2 24779 150.9276 317.9290 0002272 216.7925 143.2766 16.30904419268548
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Minisat-01       2.0  0.0  0.0  6.6 d  2.6       170 x 167 km
    1 24779U 97018A   02057.77371980  .19372580  24342+0  15092-2 0 92585
    2 24779 150.9262 320.3411 0002002 220.6831 139.3019 16.39047267268597
    Minisat-01       2.0  0.0  0.0  6.6 d  2.6       162 x 160 km
    1 24779U 97018A   02057.83455085  .25674130  47416+0  14311-2 0 92584
    2 24779 150.9257 320.8259 0001818 221.4648 138.5212 16.41744655268601
    Minisat-01       2.0  0.0  0.0  6.6 d  2.6       152 x 150 km
    1 24779U 97018A   02057.89526339  .40420061  13142+1  12409-2 0 92586
    2 24779 150.9251 321.3118 0001568 222.2487 137.7391 16.45600391268619
    Minisat-01       2.0  0.0  0.0  6.6 d  2.6       129 x 128 km
    1 24779U 97018A   02057.95577688 1.54097695  22475+2  90833-3 0 92583
    2 24779 150.9241 321.8000 0001042 223.0360 136.9559 16.54052507268627
    
    Note: The latest elset (more than six hours old) shows this running
    22 sec early against yesterday's prediction. I have this decaying
    westbound over the SE Pacific.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27383 = 02-  8 B = Cosmos 2387 Soyuz-U rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 26 05:19     Mar  1 04:12 +-2d        13.2 S   165.3 E
    SatEvo     Feb 26 17:45     Mar  1 02:41 +-18h
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 2387 Soyuz-U r                            332 x 163 km
    1 27383U 02008B   02057.46389009  .03444070  57726-5  97310-3 0    84
    2 27383  67.1183  41.0363 0128199  93.0273 268.5484 16.09781358   120
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 57 deg N in the
    evening sky and leaves eclipse while southbound near 22 deg S before
    dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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