Decay watch: 2002 February 18

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Feb 18 2002 - 14:32:44 EST

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    A summary of the final notices for the two latest decayers from my Decay 
    Watch page:
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11600 = 79- 93 A = Cosmos 1143
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 17 19:10     Feb 17 19:05 +-7m        76.0 S    39.0 E
    SatEvo     Feb 18 19:20     Feb 17 18:48 +-50m       29.4 S   110.9 W
    
    Final elset:
    Cosmos 1143      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   14       154 x 140 km
    1 11600U 79093A   02048.62703598  .17875946 -99961-6  31549-3 0  8363
    2 11600  81.2052 133.9382 0010757 265.8577  94.1492 16.47144852223667
    
    Note: The final elset shows this running 3 sec late against my
    predictions from the previous day. I put the decay southbound over
    the eastern Pacific on the last of these SatEvo-predicted orbits:
    Cosmos 1143      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   14       144 x 133 km
    1 11600U 79093A   02048.68771501  .32030935  11197+1  34746-3 0 98365
    2 11600  81.2041 133.8527 0008846 265.6108  94.2881 16.50312787223671
    Cosmos 1143      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   14       125 x 119 km
    1 11600U 79093A   02048.74826417 1.04315903  25924+2  48322-3 0 98369
    2 11600  81.2021 133.7668 0005229 265.3630  94.5773 16.56613153223684
    ______________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23460 = 94- 87 F = Raduga 32 aux motor
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 17 00:38     Feb 17 00:14 +-3h        45.8 N   136.4 E
    SatEvo     Feb 17 10:10     Feb 17 00:05 +-80m       44.2 N   103.3 E
    
    Final elset:
    Raduga 32 aux motor                              445 x 100 km
    1 23460U 94087F   02047.82907317  .68617433  11514-4  67703-3 0  3313
    2 23460  46.3404 185.3969 0258979  71.6920  60.2432 16.00644843 80207
    
    Note: SpaceCom seems to have lost this near the end, so the decay
    remains uncertain by an orbit or more. The final elset has this 29 sec
    early against my previous prediction. I now calculate the following
    elsets for the final revs, with decay likely near, or even before,
    perigee on the last of these:
    Raduga 32 aux motor                              315 x 95 km
    1 23460U 94087F   02047.93055020 1.51547189  43653+1  94161-3 0 93315
    2 23460  46.3327 184.7827 0167053  72.3074 289.5094 16.25278671 80228
    Raduga 32 aux motor                              141 x 80 km
    1 23460U 94087F   02047.99133126 9.99999999  50000+2  22891-2 0 93310
    2 23460  46.3293 184.4010 0046585  72.6899 287.8194 16.61021976 80232
    This places it over Mongolia.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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