Decay watch: 2002 February 16

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Feb 16 2002 - 13:03:19 EST

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    A summary of the updates to my Decay Watch page since my last posting 
    here on the 14th. Please check the page for more details, including 
    further predicted elsets.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #1843 = 65-106 A = Cosmos 100
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 15 17:36     Feb 15 17:09 +-7m         2.0 S   125.0 E
    SatEvo     Feb 15 19:20     Feb 15 17:16 +-15m       21.3 N   134.8 E
    
    Final elset:
    Cosmos 100       5.0  1.5  0.0  4.9 v  8.3       131 x 120 km
    1 01843U 65106A   02046.68589120  .25347173  79088-5  12873-3 0  6614
    2 01843  64.9049 169.0385 0008124 302.3837 241.1127 16.55303738975586
    
    Note: The final elset shows this running 75 sec early against
    yesterday's prediction. I show this decaying northbound over the
    western Pacific, to the s of Japan.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11600 = 79- 93 A = Cosmos 1143
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 15 22:58     Feb 17 21:50 +-1d        40.1 S   153.2 W
    SatEvo     Feb 16 17:45     Feb 17 18:44 +-8h        13.6 S   112.7 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1143      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   14       196 x 183 km
    1 11600U 79093A   02047.61783565  .04020746 -97459-6  81629-3 0  8251
    2 11600  81.2074 135.3410 0009859 270.2618 265.6088 16.31191418223496
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    (..ends)
    Cosmos 1143      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   14       141 x 136 km
    1 11600U 79093A   02048.68766931  .32838283  98631+0  37000-3 0 98259
    2 11600  81.2008 133.8564 0003955 265.9745  93.9803 16.50470105223670
    Cosmos 1143      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   14       122 x 119 km
    1 11600U 79093A   02048.74820391 1.21915321  50000+2  52200-3 0 98254
    2 11600  81.1981 133.7705 0002208 265.7266  94.2481 16.57317799223684
    
    Note: I estimate that this will decay after the southbound equator
    crossing on the final predicted orbit, above. This would place it
    over the eastern Pacific.
    ______________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23460 = 94- 87 F = Raduga 32 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 16 12:05     Feb 17 00:34 +-8h         5.1 N   155.2 W
    SatEvo     Feb 16 17:30     Feb 17 00:12 +-3h        46.5 N   126.9 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Raduga 32 aux motor                              603 x 105 km
    1 23460U 94087F   02047.61779513  .44625273  11358-4  66203-3 0  3275
    2 23460  46.3454 186.6449 0369401  69.3209 294.8775 15.71707460 80179
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    (..ends)
    Raduga 32 aux motor                              301 x 98 km
    1 23460U 94087F   02047.99310984 1.41515226  39589+1  93258-3 0 93274
    2 23460  46.3306 184.4287 0154543  71.5410 290.1327 16.27497693 80234
    Raduga 32 aux motor                              149 x 89 km
    1 23460U 94087F   02048.05386484 8.09819034  50000+2  17671-2 0 93271
    2 23460  46.3259 184.0468 0046282  71.9237 288.5800 16.57824470 80247
    
    Note: I think that decay is most likely near perigee on the
    penultimate of these predicted orbit, possibly around northern
    apex over NE China. It may well survive to SpaceCom's current
    decay point, southbound over the Pacific to the S of Hawaii. Indeed,
    the uncertainty is still a couple of orbits either way.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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