A summary of the updates to my Decay Watch page since my last posting
here on the 14th. Please check the page for more details, including
further predicted elsets.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #1843 = 65-106 A = Cosmos 100
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 15 17:36 Feb 15 17:09 +-7m 2.0 S 125.0 E
SatEvo Feb 15 19:20 Feb 15 17:16 +-15m 21.3 N 134.8 E
Final elset:
Cosmos 100 5.0 1.5 0.0 4.9 v 8.3 131 x 120 km
1 01843U 65106A 02046.68589120 .25347173 79088-5 12873-3 0 6614
2 01843 64.9049 169.0385 0008124 302.3837 241.1127 16.55303738975586
Note: The final elset shows this running 75 sec early against
yesterday's prediction. I show this decaying northbound over the
western Pacific, to the s of Japan.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #11600 = 79- 93 A = Cosmos 1143
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 15 22:58 Feb 17 21:50 +-1d 40.1 S 153.2 W
SatEvo Feb 16 17:45 Feb 17 18:44 +-8h 13.6 S 112.7 W
Latest elset:
Cosmos 1143 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.4 v 14 196 x 183 km
1 11600U 79093A 02047.61783565 .04020746 -97459-6 81629-3 0 8251
2 11600 81.2074 135.3410 0009859 270.2618 265.6088 16.31191418223496
SatEvo prediction:
(..ends)
Cosmos 1143 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.4 v 14 141 x 136 km
1 11600U 79093A 02048.68766931 .32838283 98631+0 37000-3 0 98259
2 11600 81.2008 133.8564 0003955 265.9745 93.9803 16.50470105223670
Cosmos 1143 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.4 v 14 122 x 119 km
1 11600U 79093A 02048.74820391 1.21915321 50000+2 52200-3 0 98254
2 11600 81.1981 133.7705 0002208 265.7266 94.2481 16.57317799223684
Note: I estimate that this will decay after the southbound equator
crossing on the final predicted orbit, above. This would place it
over the eastern Pacific.
______________________________________________________________________
Object: #23460 = 94- 87 F = Raduga 32 aux motor
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 16 12:05 Feb 17 00:34 +-8h 5.1 N 155.2 W
SatEvo Feb 16 17:30 Feb 17 00:12 +-3h 46.5 N 126.9 E
Latest elset:
Raduga 32 aux motor 603 x 105 km
1 23460U 94087F 02047.61779513 .44625273 11358-4 66203-3 0 3275
2 23460 46.3454 186.6449 0369401 69.3209 294.8775 15.71707460 80179
SatEvo prediction:
(..ends)
Raduga 32 aux motor 301 x 98 km
1 23460U 94087F 02047.99310984 1.41515226 39589+1 93258-3 0 93274
2 23460 46.3306 184.4287 0154543 71.5410 290.1327 16.27497693 80234
Raduga 32 aux motor 149 x 89 km
1 23460U 94087F 02048.05386484 8.09819034 50000+2 17671-2 0 93271
2 23460 46.3259 184.0468 0046282 71.9237 288.5800 16.57824470 80247
Note: I think that decay is most likely near perigee on the
penultimate of these predicted orbit, possibly around northern
apex over NE China. It may well survive to SpaceCom's current
decay point, southbound over the Pacific to the S of Hawaii. Indeed,
the uncertainty is still a couple of orbits either way.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Feb 16 2002 - 13:04:26 EST