The Cosmos 100 decay

From: Harro Zimmer (
Date: Sat Feb 16 2002 - 12:36:00 EST

  • Next message: Alan Pickup: "Decay watch: 2002 February 16"

    1965-106A (#01843) Cosmos 100
    SPACECOM'S FINAL REPORT - prepared Feb 15, 17:36 UTC - shows 
    the decay on 
        15 February, 17:09 UTC +/- 07 minutes (02.0S, 125.0E)
    on a northbound pass over the Indonesian Islands.
    This decay time was also for SPACECOM a surprise if you look on
    their 06 and 02 HOURS BEFORE decay messages (17:47 UTC +/- 04 hours and
    17:42 UTC +/- 03 hours). 
    The small FINAL REPORT decay window (+/- 07 minutes) has normally 
    no observational background. SPACECOM closed recently very often their
    files with these window.
    MPM + REENTRY delivers with the ELSETs 02046.473... - 0246.685...
    (SFX 195, ap 004) the decay with the atmosphere model MISES-00:
       15 February, 17:55 UTC +/- 11 minutes (08.58N, 291.38E)
    on a descending pass over Venezuela.
    Input SPACECOM'S atmosphere model Jacchia-70 shows:
       15 February, 17:46 UTC +/- 11 minutes (40.24N, 274.37E)
    on the same descending pass over Ohio.
    My statement that SPACECOM'S final decay data were "unpredictable" from
    the lasts ELSETs also with other sophisticated methods was confirmed by
    the analysis from the AEROSPACE CORPORATION with their decay result
    18:27 UTC +/- 30 minutes.
    I suggest that SPACECOM'S final conclusion based on the fact
    that Cosmos 100 would have passed on its final orbit the tracking
    station Clear (Alaska) on 17:32 UTC with a maximum elevation of about
    65. The negative observation explained SPACECOM'S issued data on 17:36
    Berlin, Germany
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