Another Cosmos satellite, Cosmos 1143, is close to decay. Here is a
summary of today's updates to my Decay Watch page.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #1843 = 65-106 A = Cosmos 100
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 13 16:56 Feb 15 11:35 +-1d 50.1 N 114.4 W
SatEvo Feb 14 18:55 Feb 15 20:18 +-8h 45.0 N 106.0 E
Latest elset:
Cosmos 100 5.0 1.5 0.0 4.9 v 8.3 187 x 173 km
1 01843U 65106A 02045.61908959 .02974650 00000-0 40147-3 0 6485
2 01843 64.9129 173.1947 0010913 288.0603 71.9686 16.34737814975419
SatEvo prediction:
(..ends)
Cosmos 100 5.0 1.5 0.0 4.9 v 8.3 141 x 135 km
1 01843U 65106A 02046.71635115 .22089789 49323+0 23095-3 0 96482
2 01843 64.9079 168.9553 0004925 287.5553 72.3909 16.50575710975597
Cosmos 100 5.0 1.5 0.0 4.9 v 8.3 131 x 126 km
1 01843U 65106A 02046.77688445 .41523886 20247+1 25454-3 0 96480
2 01843 64.9070 168.7175 0003727 287.5271 72.4322 16.54141792975607
Note: The latest elset shows this running 5 sec late against
yesterday's prediction. I put the decay northbound over Mongolia
after the end of the final predicted orbit above. The uncertainty
is still several hours.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #11269 = 79- 12 B = Cosmos 1077 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 14 13:21 Feb 14 15:26 +-4h 3.5 N 111.9 E
SatEvo Feb 14 20:05 Feb 14 14:45 +-90m 19.0 N 54.5 W
Latest (final?) elset:
Cosmos 1077 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 6.6 155 x 148 km
1 11269U 79012B 02045.36810907 .11933902 -86606-6 32381-3 0 8094
2 11269 81.1963 307.7380 0005333 231.9265 128.1527 16.45430944264603
Note: The latest, probably final, elset has this running 12 sec early
against the prediction I posted yesterday. I estimate that it decayed
over the western Atlantic soon after a pass over Brazil and Surimane
at the end of the following SatEvo-predicted rev:
Cosmos 1077 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 6.6 134 x 130 km
1 11269U 79012B 02045.55021190 .41024316 22958+1 31981-3 0 98093
2 11269 81.1938 307.4812 0003196 231.1861 128.7854 16.52908586264633
I show a one orbit uncertainty, so it is quite possible that it
survived to the vicinity of the following southbound equator crossing
where SpaceCom places the decay.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #11600 = 79- 93 A = Cosmos 1143
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 14 07:02 Feb 17 21:41 +-2d 5.1 S 157.6 W
SatEvo Feb 14 20:15 Feb 17 18:41 +-1d
Latest elset:
Cosmos 1143 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.4 v 14 227 x 215 km
1 11600U 79093A 02045.49354227 .01690961 00000-0 93000-3 0 8113
2 11600 81.2128 138.2302 0008556 270.6278 89.4616 16.19480644223157
Note: This is poorly placed for observation prior to decay. Eclipse
entry occurs northbound near 60 deg S at ~22:30 local time. It
leaves eclipse near northern apex over the Arctic.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #19544 = 88- 90 D = Molniya 3-33 r2
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 14 04:30 Feb 14 04:21 +-7m 57.0 S 36.0 E
SatEvo Feb 14 18:45 Feb 14 04:25 +-15m 49.3 S 52.8 E
Final elset:
Molniya 3-33 r2 294 x 79 km
1 19544U 88090D 02045.13267831 .99999999 94713-5 59831-3 0 823
2 19544 62.2976 300.7091 0163748 280.7907 77.7375 16.32286988110493
Note: SatEvo's predictions consistently indicated a late decay but,
in the end, I'm forced to agree with SpaceCom that this probably
decayed on the orbit given by the final elset above. I put it
northbound over the SW Indian Ocean.
______________________________________________________________________
Object: #23460 = 94- 87 F = Raduga 32 aux motor
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 14 03:21 Feb 16 21:06 +-2d 42.4 N 157.8 W
SatEvo Feb 14 19:05 Feb 16 16:16 +-18h
Latest elset:
Raduga 32 aux motor 1216 x 170 km
1 23460U 94087F 02045.63034231 .17835628 00000-0 16962-1 0 3119
2 23460 46.4278 197.2016 0739233 50.1791 317.7310 14.60151891 79851
Note: The latest elset has a much-too-high perigee. The prediction is
very uncertain.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Feb 14 2002 - 17:12:58 EST