Decay watch: 2002 February 14

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Feb 14 2002 - 15:30:20 EST

  • Next message: Harro Zimmer: "Decay Forecast Cosmos 100"

    Another Cosmos satellite, Cosmos 1143, is close to decay. Here is a 
    summary of today's updates to my Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #1843 = 65-106 A = Cosmos 100
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 13 16:56     Feb 15 11:35 +-1d        50.1 N   114.4 W
    SatEvo     Feb 14 18:55     Feb 15 20:18 +-8h        45.0 N   106.0 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 100       5.0  1.5  0.0  4.9 v  8.3       187 x 173 km
    1 01843U 65106A   02045.61908959  .02974650  00000-0  40147-3 0  6485
    2 01843  64.9129 173.1947 0010913 288.0603  71.9686 16.34737814975419
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    (..ends)
    Cosmos 100       5.0  1.5  0.0  4.9 v  8.3       141 x 135 km
    1 01843U 65106A   02046.71635115  .22089789  49323+0  23095-3 0 96482
    2 01843  64.9079 168.9553 0004925 287.5553  72.3909 16.50575710975597
    Cosmos 100       5.0  1.5  0.0  4.9 v  8.3       131 x 126 km
    1 01843U 65106A   02046.77688445  .41523886  20247+1  25454-3 0 96480
    2 01843  64.9070 168.7175 0003727 287.5271  72.4322 16.54141792975607
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 5 sec late against
    yesterday's prediction. I put the decay northbound over Mongolia
    after the end of the final predicted orbit above. The uncertainty
    is still several hours.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11269 = 79- 12 B = Cosmos 1077 rocket
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 14 13:21     Feb 14 15:26 +-4h         3.5 N   111.9 E
    SatEvo     Feb 14 20:05     Feb 14 14:45 +-90m       19.0 N    54.5 W
    
    Latest (final?) elset:
    Cosmos 1077 r    3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  6.6       155 x 148 km
    1 11269U 79012B   02045.36810907  .11933902 -86606-6  32381-3 0  8094
    2 11269  81.1963 307.7380 0005333 231.9265 128.1527 16.45430944264603
    
    Note: The latest, probably final, elset has this running 12 sec early
    against the prediction I posted yesterday. I estimate that it decayed
    over the western Atlantic soon after a pass over Brazil and Surimane
    at the end of the following SatEvo-predicted rev:
    Cosmos 1077 r    3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  6.6       134 x 130 km
    1 11269U 79012B   02045.55021190  .41024316  22958+1  31981-3 0 98093
    2 11269  81.1938 307.4812 0003196 231.1861 128.7854 16.52908586264633
    I show a one orbit uncertainty, so it is quite possible that it
    survived to the vicinity of the following southbound equator crossing 
    where SpaceCom places the decay.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11600 = 79- 93 A = Cosmos 1143
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 14 07:02     Feb 17 21:41 +-2d         5.1 S   157.6 W
    SatEvo     Feb 14 20:15     Feb 17 18:41 +-1d
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1143      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   14       227 x 215 km
    1 11600U 79093A   02045.49354227  .01690961  00000-0  93000-3 0  8113
    2 11600  81.2128 138.2302 0008556 270.6278  89.4616 16.19480644223157
    
    Note: This is poorly placed for observation prior to decay. Eclipse
    entry occurs northbound near 60 deg S at ~22:30 local time. It
    leaves eclipse near northern apex over the Arctic.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #19544 = 88- 90 D = Molniya 3-33 r2
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 14 04:30     Feb 14 04:21 +-7m        57.0 S    36.0 E
    SatEvo     Feb 14 18:45     Feb 14 04:25 +-15m       49.3 S    52.8 E
    
    Final elset:
    Molniya 3-33 r2                                  294 x 79 km
    1 19544U 88090D   02045.13267831  .99999999  94713-5  59831-3 0   823
    2 19544  62.2976 300.7091 0163748 280.7907  77.7375 16.32286988110493
    
    Note: SatEvo's predictions consistently indicated a late decay but,
    in the end, I'm forced to agree with SpaceCom that this probably
    decayed on the orbit given by the final elset above. I put it
    northbound over the SW Indian Ocean.
    ______________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23460 = 94- 87 F = Raduga 32 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 14 03:21     Feb 16 21:06 +-2d        42.4 N   157.8 W
    SatEvo     Feb 14 19:05     Feb 16 16:16 +-18h
    
    Latest elset:
    Raduga 32 aux motor                              1216 x 170 km
    1 23460U 94087F   02045.63034231  .17835628  00000-0  16962-1 0  3119
    2 23460  46.4278 197.2016 0739233  50.1791 317.7310 14.60151891 79851
    
    Note: The latest elset has a much-too-high perigee. The prediction is 
    very uncertain.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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