Decay watch: 2002 February 13

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Feb 13 2002 - 15:22:37 EST

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    I have just posted an update to my Decay Watch page, including the first 
    notice for #23460, a Raduga 32 aux motor. See the page for further 
    details, plus predicted elsets.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #1843 = 65-106 A = Cosmos 100
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 13 16:56     Feb 15 11:35 +-1d        50.1 N   114.4 W
    SatEvo     Feb 13 19:30     Feb 15 17:10 +-14h
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 100       5.0  1.5  0.0  4.9 v  8.3       205 x 184 km
    1 01843U 65106A   02044.63851168  .04039897  74547-5  93000-3 0  6413
    2 01843  64.9188 176.8945 0015762 299.4947  60.3845 16.29169130975251
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11269 = 79- 12 B = Cosmos 1077 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 13 18:20     Feb 14 18:40 +-15h       73.8 S    95.7 E
    SatEvo     Feb 13 19:40     Feb 14 14:49 +-7h        38.4 N    52.3 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1077 r    3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  6.6       186 x 180 km
    1 11269U 79012B   02044.51306246  .04291479 -92325-6  69469-3 0  8030
    2 11269  81.2039 308.9182 0004965 174.8901 185.2492 16.33635733264462
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    (..ends)
    Cosmos 1077 r    3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  6.6       144 x 141 km
    1 11269U 79012B   02045.48977424  .21565646  43976+0  33129-3 0 98031
    2 11269  81.1987 307.5599 0002389 170.9692 189.0351 16.48753530264628
    Cosmos 1077 r    3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  6.6       135 x 133 km
    1 11269U 79012B   02045.55041153  .36815305  14832+1  32782-3 0 98030
    2 11269  81.1977 307.4742 0001885 170.7220 189.2815 16.52100087264637
    
    Note: I show this decaying after the northbound equator crossing at
    the end of the final SatEvo-predicted orbit above. This puts it
    northbound over the western Atlantic on a track that would take it
    just E of St. Johns's, Newfoundland, at 14:51 UTC. SpaceCom retains
    its much later decay, but the uncertainties are large.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #19544 = 88- 90 D = Molniya 3-33 r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 13 18:03     Feb 14 05:50 +-8h        62.4 S    21.6 W
    SatEvo     Feb 13 19:55     Feb 14 07:24 +-4h        49.1 S     7.7 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 3-33 r2                                  698 x 88 km
    1 19544U 88090D   02044.75373141  .45670836  81953-5  35773-3 0   785
    2 19544  62.2949 302.1962 0450379 275.0910  80.0797 15.58240777110438
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    (..ends)
    Molniya 3-33 r2                                  355 x 83 km
    1 19544U 88090D   02045.19575853 1.18785337  20837+1  47103-3 0 90780
    2 19544  62.2740 300.4629 0205829 275.2427  82.4117 16.20303721110500
    Molniya 3-33 r2                                  259 x 81 km
    1 19544U 88090D   02045.25729253 1.88824129  77803+1  54862-3 0 90787
    2 19544  62.2687 300.2062 0135817 275.2655  83.1862 16.38285838110514
    
    Note: I have this decaying following perigee on the final predicted
    orbit, above. This places it northbound over the SE Atlantic on a
    track that would carry it across S Africa from SE of Cape Town at
    07:28 UTC to Pretoria at 07:31. SpaceCom has it decaying on the
    previous orbit.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23460 = 94- 87 F = Raduga 32 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 12 21:13     Feb 16 14:35 +-2d        45.5 N    73.4 W
    SatEvo     Feb 13 20:10     Feb 16 16:17 +-22h
    
    Latest elset:
    Raduga 32 aux motor                              1500 x 113 km
    1 23460U 94087F   02044.73046053  .14270127  82086-5  51544-3 0  3035
    2 23460  46.3674 201.2929 0965296  53.6714 315.8361 14.25685355 79743
    
    Note: Eclipse entry occurs after southern apex near 44 deg S in the
    evening. Eclipse exit occurs near perigee while northbound near 29
    deg N before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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