I have just posted an update to my Decay Watch page, including the first
notice for #23460, a Raduga 32 aux motor. See the page for further
details, plus predicted elsets.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #1843 = 65-106 A = Cosmos 100
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 13 16:56 Feb 15 11:35 +-1d 50.1 N 114.4 W
SatEvo Feb 13 19:30 Feb 15 17:10 +-14h
Latest elset:
Cosmos 100 5.0 1.5 0.0 4.9 v 8.3 205 x 184 km
1 01843U 65106A 02044.63851168 .04039897 74547-5 93000-3 0 6413
2 01843 64.9188 176.8945 0015762 299.4947 60.3845 16.29169130975251
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #11269 = 79- 12 B = Cosmos 1077 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 13 18:20 Feb 14 18:40 +-15h 73.8 S 95.7 E
SatEvo Feb 13 19:40 Feb 14 14:49 +-7h 38.4 N 52.3 W
Latest elset:
Cosmos 1077 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 6.6 186 x 180 km
1 11269U 79012B 02044.51306246 .04291479 -92325-6 69469-3 0 8030
2 11269 81.2039 308.9182 0004965 174.8901 185.2492 16.33635733264462
SatEvo prediction:
(..ends)
Cosmos 1077 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 6.6 144 x 141 km
1 11269U 79012B 02045.48977424 .21565646 43976+0 33129-3 0 98031
2 11269 81.1987 307.5599 0002389 170.9692 189.0351 16.48753530264628
Cosmos 1077 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 6.6 135 x 133 km
1 11269U 79012B 02045.55041153 .36815305 14832+1 32782-3 0 98030
2 11269 81.1977 307.4742 0001885 170.7220 189.2815 16.52100087264637
Note: I show this decaying after the northbound equator crossing at
the end of the final SatEvo-predicted orbit above. This puts it
northbound over the western Atlantic on a track that would take it
just E of St. Johns's, Newfoundland, at 14:51 UTC. SpaceCom retains
its much later decay, but the uncertainties are large.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #19544 = 88- 90 D = Molniya 3-33 r2
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 13 18:03 Feb 14 05:50 +-8h 62.4 S 21.6 W
SatEvo Feb 13 19:55 Feb 14 07:24 +-4h 49.1 S 7.7 E
Latest elset:
Molniya 3-33 r2 698 x 88 km
1 19544U 88090D 02044.75373141 .45670836 81953-5 35773-3 0 785
2 19544 62.2949 302.1962 0450379 275.0910 80.0797 15.58240777110438
SatEvo prediction:
(..ends)
Molniya 3-33 r2 355 x 83 km
1 19544U 88090D 02045.19575853 1.18785337 20837+1 47103-3 0 90780
2 19544 62.2740 300.4629 0205829 275.2427 82.4117 16.20303721110500
Molniya 3-33 r2 259 x 81 km
1 19544U 88090D 02045.25729253 1.88824129 77803+1 54862-3 0 90787
2 19544 62.2687 300.2062 0135817 275.2655 83.1862 16.38285838110514
Note: I have this decaying following perigee on the final predicted
orbit, above. This places it northbound over the SE Atlantic on a
track that would carry it across S Africa from SE of Cape Town at
07:28 UTC to Pretoria at 07:31. SpaceCom has it decaying on the
previous orbit.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #23460 = 94- 87 F = Raduga 32 aux motor
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 12 21:13 Feb 16 14:35 +-2d 45.5 N 73.4 W
SatEvo Feb 13 20:10 Feb 16 16:17 +-22h
Latest elset:
Raduga 32 aux motor 1500 x 113 km
1 23460U 94087F 02044.73046053 .14270127 82086-5 51544-3 0 3035
2 23460 46.3674 201.2929 0965296 53.6714 315.8361 14.25685355 79743
Note: Eclipse entry occurs after southern apex near 44 deg S in the
evening. Eclipse exit occurs near perigee while northbound near 29
deg N before dawn.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed Feb 13 2002 - 15:24:42 EST