Decay watch: 2002 February 11

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Feb 11 2002 - 14:50:32 EST

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    Recent and current decayers from my Decay Watch page, just updated 
    again. Check the page for predicted elsets.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11269 = 79- 12 B = Cosmos 1077 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb  2 16:03     Feb  6 04:44 +-2d         8.0 S   111.8 E
    SatEvo     Feb 11 19:40     Feb 14 11:43 +-20h
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1077 r    3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  6.6       217 x 207 km
    1 11269U 79012B   02042.48406551  .01855168 -95089-6  78931-3 0  7923
    2 11269  81.2078 311.6974 0006923 160.6724 199.4998 16.22811967264132
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #19544 = 88- 90 D = Molniya 3-33 r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 11 01:01     Feb 14 00:58 +-2d        55.0 S    11.8 E
    SatEvo     Feb 11 19:30     Feb 14 10:30 +-1d
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 3-33 r2                                  1464 x 91 km
    1 19544U 88090D   02042.46474167  .16798650  58509-5  23584-3 0   636
    2 19544  62.3138 309.9861 0959212 273.9886  75.2566 14.34329487110092
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while southbound near 50 deg N in the
    evening and leaves eclipse northbound near 57 deg S in the morning.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #21141 = 91- 15 C = Astra 1B Ariane 44LP r
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 10 15:21     Feb 10 14:42 +-7d         6.8 N     7.2 W
    SatEvo     Feb 10 18:40     Feb 10 16:55 +-8h         6.8 S   140.1 E
    
    Final elset:
    Astra 1B Ariane 44LP r                           713 x 119 km
    1 21141U 91015C   02040.62500000  .26588588 -30092-4  84552-3 0  1600
    2 21141   6.8842 260.9984 0437078 234.5319 347.5904 15.50205747149151
    
    Note: Despite the recent flurry of SpaceCom decay notices for this,
    most with a large decay uncertainty of 7 days, elsets were slow to
    appear and continued to have "fractional day" epochs, which is unusual
    for satellites in LEO. Are any of the recent elsets "real" or was
    this really lost some time ago, with all the decay notices a
    smokescreen to disguise this fact? My decay analysis is based on
    the published elsets, fictional or otherwise.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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