Recent and current decayers from my Decay Watch page, just updated
again. Check the page for predicted elsets.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #11269 = 79- 12 B = Cosmos 1077 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 2 16:03 Feb 6 04:44 +-2d 8.0 S 111.8 E
SatEvo Feb 11 19:40 Feb 14 11:43 +-20h
Latest elset:
Cosmos 1077 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 6.6 217 x 207 km
1 11269U 79012B 02042.48406551 .01855168 -95089-6 78931-3 0 7923
2 11269 81.2078 311.6974 0006923 160.6724 199.4998 16.22811967264132
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #19544 = 88- 90 D = Molniya 3-33 r2
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 11 01:01 Feb 14 00:58 +-2d 55.0 S 11.8 E
SatEvo Feb 11 19:30 Feb 14 10:30 +-1d
Latest elset:
Molniya 3-33 r2 1464 x 91 km
1 19544U 88090D 02042.46474167 .16798650 58509-5 23584-3 0 636
2 19544 62.3138 309.9861 0959212 273.9886 75.2566 14.34329487110092
Note: This enters eclipse while southbound near 50 deg N in the
evening and leaves eclipse northbound near 57 deg S in the morning.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #21141 = 91- 15 C = Astra 1B Ariane 44LP r
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 10 15:21 Feb 10 14:42 +-7d 6.8 N 7.2 W
SatEvo Feb 10 18:40 Feb 10 16:55 +-8h 6.8 S 140.1 E
Final elset:
Astra 1B Ariane 44LP r 713 x 119 km
1 21141U 91015C 02040.62500000 .26588588 -30092-4 84552-3 0 1600
2 21141 6.8842 260.9984 0437078 234.5319 347.5904 15.50205747149151
Note: Despite the recent flurry of SpaceCom decay notices for this,
most with a large decay uncertainty of 7 days, elsets were slow to
appear and continued to have "fractional day" epochs, which is unusual
for satellites in LEO. Are any of the recent elsets "real" or was
this really lost some time ago, with all the decay notices a
smokescreen to disguise this fact? My decay analysis is based on
the published elsets, fictional or otherwise.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Mon Feb 11 2002 - 14:51:29 EST