Decay watch: 2002 February 8

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Feb 08 2002 - 14:44:27 EST

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    Today's summary of updates to my Decay Watch page since my last SeeSat 
    posting on the 6th:
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #6221 = 72- 76 D = OPS 8180 Atlas F burner deb
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb  7 11:18     Feb  7 09:49 +-7m        76.4 N    52.3 E
    SatEvo     Feb  7 19:40     Feb  7 08:08 +-45m       63.7 N   164.9 W
    
    Final elset:
    OPS 8180 AtBrnr deb D                            170 x 159 km
    1 06221U 72076D   02038.20643914  .33922672  33010-5  24603-2 0  5152
    2 06221  98.5500 111.8324 0008942 267.3275  92.7021 16.40546049574944
    
    Note: I show this decaying over western Alaska following the end of
    the orbit given by this predicted elset:
    OPS 8180 AtBrnr deb D                            153 x 144 km
    1 06221U 72076D   02038.26730904  .61406402  37539+1  13297-2 0 95154
    2 06221  98.5482 111.9152 0006839 267.0799  92.8419 16.46437470574950
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11269 = 79- 12 B = Cosmos 1077 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb  2 16:03     Feb  6 04:44 +-2d         8.0 S   111.8 E
    SatEvo     Feb  8 19:20     Feb 14 05:34 +-1.7d
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1077 r    3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  6.6       239 x 229 km
    1 11269U 79012B   02039.65467774  .01190927  99866-3  94052-3 0  7821
    2 11269  81.2109 315.5052 0007572 156.3793 289.3115 16.14803840263676
    
    SatEvo prediction: see Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #21141 = 91- 15 C = Astra 1B Ariane 44LP r
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb  6 18:39     Feb 10 17:31 +-7d         0.0 N   149.0 W
    SatEvo     Feb  8 19:30     Feb 10 09:23 +-12h
    
    Latest elset:
    Astra 1B Ariane 44LP r                           917 x 131 km
    1 21141U 91015C   02039.75000000  .14851867 -27768-4  10806-2 0  1513
    2 21141   6.8951 267.9855 0569898 220.9139 204.5971 15.14062701149013
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    
    Note: Elsets reappeared for this today for the first time in ten days.
    For an object of this mean motion, it is odd that the epochs of the
    latest four elsets should be exactly 02039.25, 02039.375, 02039.5 and
    (as above) 02039.75. The prediction is uncertain.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23009 = 94- 10 B = Dummy mass
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb  7 19:31     Feb  7 21:54 +-3h        23.8 S    32.5 E
    SatEvo     Feb  7 23:00     Feb  7 21:57 +-2h        16.1 S    53.7 E
    
    Final elset:
    Dummy mass                                       312 x 112 km
    1 23009U 94010B   02038.67596428  .34100703 -72547-5  40932-3 0  8593
    2 23009  28.2659 194.8705 0151543 290.4438  68.0266 16.22884462126898
    
    Note: One further elset appeared since I made my final analysis on
    the 7th - it was for the same equator-crossing as the previous one
    and adds little to the outcome. I think that decay was most likely
    to have been near perigee on the first of the following predicted
    orbits:
    Dummy mass                                       226 x 109 km
    1 23009U 94010B   02038.85975436  .70487793  17209+1  55061-3 0 98596
    2 23009  28.2629 193.4166 0088949 292.8198  66.2431 16.39334853126929
    Dummy mass                                       168 x 104 km
    1 23009U 94010B   02038.92049747 1.59471925  15234+2  69151-3 0 98591
    2 23009  28.2611 192.9257 0048697 293.6220  65.8675 16.51343602126938
    This puts it northbound over the western Indian Ocean after a pass
    across southern Africa.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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