Today's summary of updates to my Decay Watch page since my last SeeSat
posting on the 6th:
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #6221 = 72- 76 D = OPS 8180 Atlas F burner deb
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 7 11:18 Feb 7 09:49 +-7m 76.4 N 52.3 E
SatEvo Feb 7 19:40 Feb 7 08:08 +-45m 63.7 N 164.9 W
Final elset:
OPS 8180 AtBrnr deb D 170 x 159 km
1 06221U 72076D 02038.20643914 .33922672 33010-5 24603-2 0 5152
2 06221 98.5500 111.8324 0008942 267.3275 92.7021 16.40546049574944
Note: I show this decaying over western Alaska following the end of
the orbit given by this predicted elset:
OPS 8180 AtBrnr deb D 153 x 144 km
1 06221U 72076D 02038.26730904 .61406402 37539+1 13297-2 0 95154
2 06221 98.5482 111.9152 0006839 267.0799 92.8419 16.46437470574950
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #11269 = 79- 12 B = Cosmos 1077 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 2 16:03 Feb 6 04:44 +-2d 8.0 S 111.8 E
SatEvo Feb 8 19:20 Feb 14 05:34 +-1.7d
Latest elset:
Cosmos 1077 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 6.6 239 x 229 km
1 11269U 79012B 02039.65467774 .01190927 99866-3 94052-3 0 7821
2 11269 81.2109 315.5052 0007572 156.3793 289.3115 16.14803840263676
SatEvo prediction: see Decay Watch page.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #21141 = 91- 15 C = Astra 1B Ariane 44LP r
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 6 18:39 Feb 10 17:31 +-7d 0.0 N 149.0 W
SatEvo Feb 8 19:30 Feb 10 09:23 +-12h
Latest elset:
Astra 1B Ariane 44LP r 917 x 131 km
1 21141U 91015C 02039.75000000 .14851867 -27768-4 10806-2 0 1513
2 21141 6.8951 267.9855 0569898 220.9139 204.5971 15.14062701149013
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
Note: Elsets reappeared for this today for the first time in ten days.
For an object of this mean motion, it is odd that the epochs of the
latest four elsets should be exactly 02039.25, 02039.375, 02039.5 and
(as above) 02039.75. The prediction is uncertain.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #23009 = 94- 10 B = Dummy mass
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 7 19:31 Feb 7 21:54 +-3h 23.8 S 32.5 E
SatEvo Feb 7 23:00 Feb 7 21:57 +-2h 16.1 S 53.7 E
Final elset:
Dummy mass 312 x 112 km
1 23009U 94010B 02038.67596428 .34100703 -72547-5 40932-3 0 8593
2 23009 28.2659 194.8705 0151543 290.4438 68.0266 16.22884462126898
Note: One further elset appeared since I made my final analysis on
the 7th - it was for the same equator-crossing as the previous one
and adds little to the outcome. I think that decay was most likely
to have been near perigee on the first of the following predicted
orbits:
Dummy mass 226 x 109 km
1 23009U 94010B 02038.85975436 .70487793 17209+1 55061-3 0 98596
2 23009 28.2629 193.4166 0088949 292.8198 66.2431 16.39334853126929
Dummy mass 168 x 104 km
1 23009U 94010B 02038.92049747 1.59471925 15234+2 69151-3 0 98591
2 23009 28.2611 192.9257 0048697 293.6220 65.8675 16.51343602126938
This puts it northbound over the western Indian Ocean after a pass
across southern Africa.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Feb 08 2002 - 17:01:58 EST