Decay watch: 2002 February 6

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Feb 06 2002 - 15:19:21 EST

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    A summary of today's update to my Decay Watch page, including new 
    decayer #21141 = Astra 1B Ariane 44LP rocket (though with no current 
    elsets)...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #6221 = 72- 76 D = OPS 8180 Atlas F burner deb
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb  6 09:25     Feb  7 09:36 +-15h       36.9 N   173.9 W
    SatEvo     Feb  6 19:40     Feb  7 07:52 +-11h        0.0     143.2 W
    
    Latest elset:
    OPS 8180 AtBrnr deb D                            221 x 210 km
    1 06221U 72076D   02037.46928323  .07501484  31345-5  35125-2 0  5110
    2 06221  98.5527 110.8534 0008770 295.9394  64.0696 16.21558625574822
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    (..ends)
    OPS 8180 AtBrnr deb D                            163 x 157 km
    1 06221U 72076D   02038.20634710  .39566574  10961+1  22415-2 0 95116
    2 06221  98.5457 111.8356 0004055 293.0014  66.9558 16.42236197574948
    OPS 8180 AtBrnr deb D                            143 x 139 km
    1 06221U 72076D   02038.26717086  .98674246  78976+1  13450-2 0 95110
    2 06221  98.5438 111.9185 0002711 292.7533  67.2181 16.49419707574951
    
    Note: My current prediction is for this to decay near the northbound
    equator crossing over the Pacific at the end of the final
    SatEvo-predicted orbit, above.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11269 = 79- 12 B = Cosmos 1077 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Feb  2 16:03     Feb  6 04:44 +-2d         8.0 S   111.8 E
    SatEvo     Feb  6 19:50     Feb 13 08:08 +-2d
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1077 r    3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  6.6       251 x 240 km
    1 11269U 79012B   02037.59212996  .01085226  72279-3  11413-2 0  7740
    2 11269  81.2116 318.2591 0007721 157.2863 202.8720 16.10480106263344
    
    SatEvo prediction: (none at present)
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #21141 = 91- 15 C = Astra 1B Ariane 44LP r
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb  6 18:39     Feb 10 17:31 +-7d         0.0 N   149.0 W
    SatEvo     Feb  6 20:10     Feb 10       +-5d
    
    Latest elset:
    Astra 1B Ariane 44LP r                           2123 x 144 km
    1 21141U 91015C   02029.47695693  .05787188 -18148-4  18160-2 0  1415
    2 21141   6.8993 335.0166 1317464  87.7942 287.2184 13.33579254147627
    
    SatEvo prediction: (none made)
    
    Note: With no fresh elsets issued for 8 days, it is surprising that
    SpaceCom has posted a decay notice albeit with a very large time
    uncertainty.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23009 = 94- 10 B = Dummy mass
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb  6 18:46     Feb  7 17:41 +-14h        1.0 S   150.4 E
    SatEvo     Feb  6 19:55     Feb  8 03:52 +-11h
    
    Latest elset:
    Dummy mass                                       537 x 117 km
    1 23009U 94010B   02037.67657904  .13979619 -74774-5  33203-3 0  8515
    2 23009  28.2775 202.4748 0312457 278.5675  77.8933 15.81251445126738
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    
    Note: There is a rather large difference between the two decay
    predictions.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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