Decay watch: 2002 February 4

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Feb 04 2002 - 15:47:28 EST

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    Another summary of updates on my Decay watch page. One new decayer: 
    #23009 = Dummy Mass.
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #6221 = 72- 76 D = OPS 8180 Atlas F burner deb
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb  4 17:20     Feb  7 17:26 +-2d        34.2 N    99.3 W
    SatEvo     Feb  4 20:15     Feb  7 14:09 +-20h
    
    Latest elset:
    OPS 8180 AtBrnr deb D                            262 x 252 km
    1 06221U 72076D   02035.66978728  .02288488  47934-2  33473-2 0  4992
    2 06221  98.5620 108.5053 0007844 287.6240  72.4214 16.06298027574532
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11269 = 79- 12 B = Cosmos 1077 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb  2 16:03     Feb  6 04:44 +-2d         8.0 S   111.8 E
    SatEvo     Feb  4 20:20     Feb 12       +-3d
    
    Latest elsets:
    Cosmos 1077 r    3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  6.6       266 x 256 km
    1 11269U 79012B   02034.16814835  .00587300  16340-3  87440-3 0  7650
    2 11269  81.2092 322.8014 0007505 165.8490 194.2964 16.04787854262794
    Cosmos 1077 r    3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  6.6       265 x 255 km
    1 11269U 79012B   02034.54223072 -.00050222  12543-6 -73522-4 0  7672
    2 11269  81.1944 322.3130 0007461 170.0460 190.1002 16.05125672262859
    
    Note: Very surprisingly, no fresh elsets have been issued for more than 
    a day - the latest elset reports an invalid negative drag.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #19541 = 88- 90 A = Molniya 3-33
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb  4 05:40     Feb  4 05:29 +-7m        62.0 S   177.0 W
    SatEvo     Feb  4 08:00     Feb  4 05:29 +-10m       62.3 S   175.5 E
    
    Final elset:
    Molniya 3-33                                     395 x 84 km
    1 19541U 88090A   02035.18186835  .99999999  85780-5  19035-2 0  1611
    2 19541  62.1645 124.6881 0235274 267.5918  89.8035 16.12723214 98512
    
    Note: The perigee given by the final elset is probably too high. I am
    sure that this must have decayed in the vicinity of perigee on this
    orbit, at southern apex and near the International Date Line far to the
    S of New Zealand.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23009 = 94- 10 B = Dummy mass
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb  4 12:50     Feb  7 22:10 +-2d         5.2 S    73.7 E
    SatEvo     Feb  4 20:35     Feb  8 05:24 +-1.1d
    
    Latest elset:
    Dummy mass                                       746 x 123 km
    1 23009U 94010B   02035.71391944  .07761701 -73028-5  30264-3 0  8415
    2 23009  28.2723 216.5715 0457580 255.1939 210.6672 15.43990986126423
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while southbound near 17 deg S in the evening
    sky and leaves eclipse while northbound near 4 deg S in the morning.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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