Here is a summary of the latest update to my Decay Watch pages. The
first two objects were added yesterday. Check the page for further
predicted elsets.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #6221 = 72- 76 D = OPS 8180 Atlas F burner deb
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 2 17:10 Feb 6 17:26 +-2d 76.0 N 68.6 W
SatEvo Feb 3 17:10 Feb 7 05:36 +-1.1d
Latest elset:
OPS 8180 AtBrnr deb D 276 x 267 km
1 06221U 72076D 02034.48412254 .01947380 25755-2 37609-2 0 4925
2 06221 98.5596 106.9856 0007060 287.2664 72.7845 16.01007292574342
Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 57 deg S and leaves
eclipse as it approaches northern apex over the Arctic.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #11269 = 79- 12 B = Cosmos 1077 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 2 16:03 Feb 6 04:44 +-2d 8.0 S 111.8 E
SatEvo Feb 2 20:00 Feb 11 +-3d
Latest elsets:
Cosmos 1077 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 6.6 266 x 256 km
1 11269U 79012B 02034.16814835 .00587300 16340-3 87440-3 0 7650
2 11269 81.2092 322.8014 0007505 165.8490 194.2964 16.04787854262794
Cosmos 1077 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 6.6 265 x 255 km
1 11269U 79012B 02034.54223072 -.00050222 12543-6 -73522-4 0 7672
2 11269 81.1944 322.3130 0007461 170.0460 190.1002 16.05125672262859
Note: This enters eclipse as it approaches northern apex over the
Arctic and leaves eclipse southbound near 56 deg S at ~02h local time.
The SpaceCom notice appears a little premature. The latest elsets
reports an invalid negative drag.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #11556 = 79- 70 D = Molniya 1-44 r2
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 2 07:46 Feb 2 06:44 +-7m 44.8 N 142.0 E
SatEvo Feb 2 18:50 Feb 2 07:39 +-70m 10.4 S 25.7 W
Final elset:
Molniya 1-44 r2 374 x 114 km
1 11556U 79070D 02033.13684730 .53373439 11366-4 87773-3 0 6058
2 11556 62.0953 227.6946 0196223 319.4693 40.3677 16.11009277188715
Note: I put this decay a little after perigee on the following
SatEvo-predicted orbit:
Molniya 1-44 r2 240 x 104 km
1 11556U 79070D 02033.25990935 1.59397697 79568+1 11701-2 0 96057
2 11556 62.0879 227.1819 0103776 319.5215 39.7111 16.37621048188739
This places it northbound over the southern Atlantic.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #19541 = 88- 90 A = Molniya 3-33
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 3 14:23 Feb 4 02:26 +-7h 61.4 S 119.4 W
SatEvo Feb 3 17:20 Feb 4 02:31 +-4h 53.9 S 93.0 W
Latest elset:
Molniya 3-33 1821 x 77 km
1 19541U 88090A 02034.63925077 .99999999 14409-4 98923-3 0 1555
2 19541 62.1840 126.5463 1190027 262.6178 83.9462 13.84250843 98436
SatEvo prediction:
(..ends)
Molniya 3-33 964 x 74 km
1 19541U 88090A 02034.98694558 2.75569773 32513+1 11950-2 0 91554
2 19541 62.1327 125.4286 0644982 262.7262 89.9025 15.15667427 98487
Molniya 3-33 718 x 73 km
1 19541U 88090A 02035.05241891 3.78151773 85938+1 12690-2 0 91553
2 19541 62.1159 125.1879 0475900 262.7501 91.8178 15.57448176 98499
Molniya 3-33 340 x 70 km
1 19541U 88090A 02035.11597762 9.06875574 50000+2 15884-2 0 91551
2 19541 62.0984 124.9364 0205534 262.7755 94.8836 16.25375400 98506
Note: I suspect that this will decay near perigee on the penultimate
of these SatEvo-predicted orbits. This puts it northbound over the
far-SE Pacific Ocean.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #24736 = 96- 10 F = Raduga 33 aux motor
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 2 20:40 Feb 2 15:44 +-1m 44.7 N 137.9 W
SatEvo Feb 2 19:20 Feb 2 15:47 +-20m 34.6 N 113.9 W
Final elset:
Raduga 33 aux motor 351 x 141 km
1 24736U 96010F 02033.63579390 .95240990 10066-4 63497-2 0 3291
2 24736 47.6271 114.6136 0158547 110.8241 251.1747 16.10425541 64691
Note: I show this decaying over the SW USA on a pass from northern
California at 15:45 UTC to Tucson, Arizona, at 15:48. SpaceCom's decay
puts it to the west of Portland, Oregon, and has a very small
uncertainty suggesting that it may have been based on tracking data or
other observations at the time.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sun Feb 03 2002 - 12:35:23 EST