Decay watch: 2001 Feb 21 (Molniya 3-26)

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Feb 21 2001 - 14:02:33 PST

  • Next message: Matson, Robert: "RE: Decay watch: 2001 Feb 21"

    See my Decay Watch page for more details of this prediction, and thanks
    to Bjoern for his earlier posting.
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #16112 = 85- 91 A = Molniya 3-26
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 21 19:46     Feb 21 22:43 +-3h        50.9 S   114.0 W
    SatEvo     Feb 21 21:25     Feb 22 00:18 +-100m      53.7 S   143.7 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 3-26                                     1211 x 77 km
    1 16112U 85091A   01052.82418860  .99999999  52439-5  13332-2 0   354
    2 16112  62.5970  57.9892 0807373 265.8366  84.9532 14.75451501113432
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Molniya 3-26                                     1104 x 77 km
    1 16112U 85091A   01052.89216061 2.44635179  23082+1  13527-2 0 90351
    2 16112  62.5879  57.7632 0736819 265.8512  85.7015 14.92482861113447
    Molniya 3-26                                     883 x 76 km
    1 16112U 85091A   01052.95869735 3.10547729  46826+1  14071-2 0 90353
    2 16112  62.5730  57.5310 0588386 265.8664  87.3911 15.28925474113452
    Molniya 3-26                                     601 x 74 km
    1 16112U 85091A   01053.02354679 4.73680167  14001+2  15205-2 0 90353
    2 16112  62.5593  57.2907 0392300 265.8825  89.6254 15.77682288113469
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 27 minutes early against
    yesterday's prediction. The prediction continues to be very uncertain -
    indeed the drag near perigee may be enough to make it self-luminous
    near those times, and the stress must be such that it might break up
    near any of the remaining perigee passes. My estimate is for decay 
    near perigee on the penultimate of these predicted revs, northbound 
    over the S Pacific. If it survives, there is pass across eastern 
    North America from Mobile, Alabama, at 00:43 UTC to Ottawa/Montreal
    at 00:48. 
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed Feb 21 2001 - 14:04:33 PST