From today's update to my Decay Watch page...
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #16112 = 85- 91 A = Molniya 3-26
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 19 01:52 Feb 21 22:05 +-2d 59.4 S 125.4 W
SatEvo Feb 19 19:20 Feb 21 23:44 +-1.2
Latest elset:
Molniya 3-26 4617 x 75 km
1 16112U 85091A 01050.51765911 .82325621 00000-0 10207-2 0 122
2 16112 62.5409 63.2694 2602452 263.6865 66.5094 10.65466530113232
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
Note: The latest elset shows this running 76 seconds late against
yesterday's prediction. The prediction remains uncertain.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #16125 = 85- 91 D = Molniya 3-26 r2
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 19 10:45 Feb 19 23:03 +-8h 31.9 S 80.6 E
SatEvo Feb 19 19:30 Feb 20 00:28 +-3h 37.8 S 53.4 E
Latest elset:
Molniya 3-26 r2 516 x 74 km
1 16125U 85091D 01050.71726321 .99999999 00000-0 38655-3 0 9580
2 16125 61.9093 235.9988 0331068 290.8855 65.8384 15.92643015122237
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page
..(ends)
Molniya 3-26 r2 352 x 80 km
1 16125U 85091D 01050.90442046 1.11137914 15995+1 36492-3 0 99581
2 16125 61.8998 235.2352 0206295 290.9738 66.8314 16.21442324122262
Molniya 3-26 r2 265 x 78 km
1 16125U 85091D 01050.96591513 1.63789663 46440+1 41022-3 0 99586
2 16125 61.8952 234.9753 0142582 291.0040 67.4766 16.37747545122278
Note: The latest elset shows this running 90 sec early early against
yesterday's prediction. I estimate that this will decay near perigee
on the last of these SatEvo-predicted revs, northbound over the SW
Indian Ocean.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #20094 = 89- 48 F = Raduga 1-1 aux motor
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 11 11:28 Feb 20 11:55 +-16h 40.7 N 41.4 W
SatEvo Feb 19 19:40 Feb 20 13:16 +-6h 46.6 N 96.3 W
Latest elset:
Raduga 1-1 aux motor 613 x 119 km
1 20094U 89048F 01050.72393993 .18372635 00000-0 51235-3 0 2239
2 20094 46.4451 165.9965 0366187 63.1578 300.6879 15.67644472166522
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page
..(ends)
Raduga 1-1 aux motor 300 x 107 km
1 20094U 89048F 01051.47639419 .76464512 12682+1 72472-3 0 92164
2 20094 46.4254 161.5929 0146442 67.1548 294.3850 16.26045316166533
Raduga 1-1 aux motor 242 x 104 km
1 20094U 89048F 01051.53755664 1.15936224 40131+1 80640-3 0 92166
2 20094 46.4225 161.2135 0104979 67.5335 293.5749 16.37349882166540
Note: The latest elset shows it running 64 sec late against yesterday's
prediction. I show this decaying just beyond northern apex while
eastbound over the USA from southern Oregon at 13:11 UTC to Minneapolis
at 13:15 and Boston at 13:21.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26600 = 00- 69 B = Beidou-1 Long March 3 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 19 06:15 Feb 19 18:41 +-12h 13.5 S 75.5 E
SatEvo Feb 19 19:50 Feb 19 13:53 +-15m 0.0 179.3 E
Latest (final?) elsets:
Beidou-1 LM3 r 839 x 98 km
1 26600U 00069B 01050.46202262 .07690429 -10650-4 10000-3 0 1630
2 26600 24.8429 178.0560 0540594 334.8046 81.9384 15.32521292 3724
Beidou-1 LM3 r 399 x 95 km
1 26600U 00069B 01050.53104425 .14071856 -12227-4 10000-3 0 1659
2 26600 24.8185 177.5064 0228870 331.3369 112.2842 16.10013933 3739
Note: The two latest elsets have drag terms that are much too
low but, unless they are otherwise fictitious, it is clear that
this decayed unexpectedly quickly at the end. Decay probably came
near the end of the second of these revs, while the rocket was near
a northbound equator crossing close to the International Date Line
over the Pacific. The final decay warnings from SpaceCom have
yet to appear.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Mon Feb 19 2001 - 12:46:49 PST