As usual, more details and predicted elsets are on my Decay Watch page.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #16112 = 85- 91 A = Molniya 3-26
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 16 16:22 Feb 20 13:43 +-2d 61.5 S 8.8 W
SatEvo Feb 18 19:45 Feb 21 21:44 +-1.2
Latest elset:
Molniya 3-26 5689 x 76 km
1 16112U 85091A 01049.59304168 .38066772 60106-5 57487-3 0 75
2 16112 62.5626 64.7366 3030347 263.3976 277.4712 9.74268789113058
Note: The latest elset shows this running 69 seconds late against
yesterday's prediction. The prediction is very uncertain.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #16125 = 85- 91 D = Molniya 3-26 r2
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 18 01:50 Feb 19 21:35 +-1d 27.8 S 106.2 E
SatEvo Feb 18 19:50 Feb 20 00:33 +-10h 35.8 S 54.0 E
Latest elset:
Molniya 3-26 r2 987 x 92 km
1 16125U 85091D 01049.74514949 .26840118 78184-5 32007-3 0 9498
2 16125 61.9235 239.6266 0646880 290.1730 63.1526 15.08828965121921
SatEvo prediction:
..(ends)
Molniya 3-26 r2 342 x 85 km
1 16125U 85091D 01050.96834550 1.11338255 18769+1 46395-3 0 99498
2 16125 61.8839 234.9758 0194945 290.7101 67.2112 16.22442974122119
Note: The latest elset shows this running 1.8 min early against
yesterday's prediction. I show this decaying while northbound
over the SW Indian Ocean on this predicted rev.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #20094 = 89- 48 F = Raduga 1-1 aux motor
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 18 16:20 Feb 20 15:06 +-1d 20.6 N 56.3 W
SatEvo Feb 18 20:00 Feb 20 14:43 +-12h
Latest elset:
Raduga 1-1 aux motor 834 x 120 km
1 20094U 89048F 01049.69103930 .14104123 98168-5 51623-3 0 2131
2 20094 46.4525 171.6792 0520271 57.2633 307.7449 15.29678536166255
Note: The latest elset shows it running 17 sec late against yesterday's
prediction.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #25314 = 98- 24 D = Nilesat Ariane deb (Spelda)
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 18 01:30 Feb 18 00:07 +-10h 4.3 S 42.6 W
SatEvo Feb 17 20:10 Feb 18 00:55 +-5h 6.3 N 154.7 E
Final elset:
Nilesat Ariane deb (Spelda) 545 x 148 km
1 25314U 98024D 01048.21595129 .21629798 -31096-4 43520-2 0 5254
2 25314 6.6278 251.9206 0294575 35.9500 326.0254 15.74388665 56292
Note: No further elsets appeared, so the analysis I posted on Feb 17
is unchanged. I place the decay near northern apex over the western
Pacific, to the NE of New Guinea, on the rev described by this
SatEvo-predicted elset:
Nilesat Ariane deb (Spelda) 175 x 116 km
1 25314U 98024D 01049.02623619 3.16667448 50000+2 23702-2 0 95252
2 25314 6.6245 244.9956 0044871 49.6610 310.7298 16.47705860 56420
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26600 = 00- 69 B = Beidou-1 Long March 3 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 17 06:09 Feb 19 04:35 +-1d 4.4 N 28.0 W
SatEvo Feb 18 20:10 Feb 19 23:59 +-10h 3.8 N 33.1 E
Latest elset:
Beidou-1 LM3 r 2307 x 103 km
1 26600U 00069B 01049.75457013 .68983194 -20204-4 20243-2 0 1597
2 26600 24.8777 182.1434 1453576 329.3211 132.6474 13.14743942 3633
SatEvo prediction:
..(ends)
Beidou-1 LM3 r 616 x 92 km
1 26600U 00069B 01050.93512020 3.03173775 71158+1 24813-2 0 91592
2 26600 24.8240 175.0695 0389131 341.4701 17.1512 15.71789976 3802
Beidou-1 LM3 r 319 x 89 km
1 26600U 00069B 01050.99780343 7.33618071 50000+2 32981-2 0 91592
2 26600 24.8171 174.5824 0174852 342.3070 17.0915 16.25835738 3819
Note: The latest elset has this 27 min late against yesterday's
prediction. The prediction remains very uncertain but the decay has
certainly slipped considerably. I suspect that it is most likely near
perigee on the penultimate of these SatEvo-predicted revs, northbound
over eastern Africa.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sun Feb 18 2001 - 12:25:43 PST