Decay watch: 2001 Feb 18

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun Feb 18 2001 - 12:21:09 PST

  • Next message: Michael McCants: "Observations 17 Feb"

    As usual, more details and predicted elsets are on my Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #16112 = 85- 91 A = Molniya 3-26
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 16 16:22     Feb 20 13:43 +-2d        61.5 S     8.8 W
    SatEvo     Feb 18 19:45     Feb 21 21:44 +-1.2
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 3-26                                     5689 x 76 km
    1 16112U 85091A   01049.59304168  .38066772  60106-5  57487-3 0    75
    2 16112  62.5626  64.7366 3030347 263.3976 277.4712  9.74268789113058
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 69 seconds late against
    yesterday's prediction. The prediction is very uncertain.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #16125 = 85- 91 D = Molniya 3-26 r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 18 01:50     Feb 19 21:35 +-1d        27.8 S   106.2 E
    SatEvo     Feb 18 19:50     Feb 20 00:33 +-10h       35.8 S    54.0 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 3-26 r2                                  987 x 92 km
    1 16125U 85091D   01049.74514949  .26840118  78184-5  32007-3 0  9498
    2 16125  61.9235 239.6266 0646880 290.1730  63.1526 15.08828965121921
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    ..(ends)
    Molniya 3-26 r2                                  342 x 85 km
    1 16125U 85091D   01050.96834550 1.11338255  18769+1  46395-3 0 99498
    2 16125  61.8839 234.9758 0194945 290.7101  67.2112 16.22442974122119
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 1.8 min early against 
    yesterday's prediction. I show this decaying while northbound
    over the SW Indian Ocean on this predicted rev.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #20094 = 89- 48 F = Raduga 1-1 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 18 16:20     Feb 20 15:06 +-1d        20.6 N    56.3 W
    SatEvo     Feb 18 20:00     Feb 20 14:43 +-12h
    
    Latest elset:
    Raduga 1-1 aux motor                             834 x 120 km
    1 20094U 89048F   01049.69103930  .14104123  98168-5  51623-3 0  2131
    2 20094  46.4525 171.6792 0520271  57.2633 307.7449 15.29678536166255
    
    Note: The latest elset shows it running 17 sec late against yesterday's
    prediction.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25314 = 98- 24 D = Nilesat Ariane deb (Spelda)
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 18 01:30     Feb 18 00:07 +-10h        4.3 S    42.6 W
    SatEvo     Feb 17 20:10     Feb 18 00:55 +-5h         6.3 N   154.7 E
    
    Final elset:
    Nilesat Ariane deb (Spelda)                      545 x 148 km
    1 25314U 98024D   01048.21595129  .21629798 -31096-4  43520-2 0  5254
    2 25314   6.6278 251.9206 0294575  35.9500 326.0254 15.74388665 56292
    
    Note: No further elsets appeared, so the analysis I posted on Feb 17
    is unchanged. I place the decay near northern apex over the western
    Pacific, to the NE of New Guinea, on the rev described by this
    SatEvo-predicted elset:
    Nilesat Ariane deb (Spelda)                      175 x 116 km
    1 25314U 98024D   01049.02623619 3.16667448  50000+2  23702-2 0 95252
    2 25314   6.6245 244.9956 0044871  49.6610 310.7298 16.47705860 56420
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26600 = 00- 69 B = Beidou-1 Long March 3 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 17 06:09     Feb 19 04:35 +-1d         4.4 N    28.0 W
    SatEvo     Feb 18 20:10     Feb 19 23:59 +-10h        3.8 N    33.1 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Beidou-1 LM3 r                                   2307 x 103 km
    1 26600U 00069B   01049.75457013  .68983194 -20204-4  20243-2 0  1597
    2 26600  24.8777 182.1434 1453576 329.3211 132.6474 13.14743942  3633
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    ..(ends)
    Beidou-1 LM3 r                                   616 x 92 km
    1 26600U 00069B   01050.93512020 3.03173775  71158+1  24813-2 0 91592
    2 26600  24.8240 175.0695 0389131 341.4701  17.1512 15.71789976  3802
    Beidou-1 LM3 r                                   319 x 89 km
    1 26600U 00069B   01050.99780343 7.33618071  50000+2  32981-2 0 91592
    2 26600  24.8171 174.5824 0174852 342.3070  17.0915 16.25835738  3819
    
    Note: The latest elset has this 27 min late against yesterday's 
    prediction. The prediction remains very uncertain but the decay has 
    certainly slipped considerably. I suspect that it is most likely near 
    perigee on the penultimate of these SatEvo-predicted revs, northbound
    over eastern Africa.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sun Feb 18 2001 - 12:25:43 PST