From the latest update to my Decay Watch page - go there for predicted
elsets...
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Object: #16112 = 85- 91 A = Molniya 3-26
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 16 16:22 Feb 20 13:43 +-2d 61.5 S 8.8 W
SatEvo Feb 17 19:45 Feb 22 04:17 +-2d
Latest elsets:
Molniya 3-26 6856 x 101 km
1 16112U 85091A 01048.41326549 .31260835 46912-5 20339-2 0 08
2 16112 62.5915 66.3923 3426264 263.4174 296.2885 8.87240863112947
Molniya 3-26 6773 x 75 km
1 16112U 85091A 01048.51931839 .29302650 48964-5 50116-3 0 19
2 16112 62.5650 66.2967 3416257 263.3142 277.0306 8.94575729112951
Note: The latest elset shows this running 16 minutes late against
yesterday's prediction. My new prediction may be just as poor.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #16125 = 85- 91 D = Molniya 3-26 r2
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 16 23:14 Feb 19 21:25 +-2d 51.1 S 83.8 E
SatEvo Feb 17 19:50 Feb 20 05:15 +-21h
Latest elset:
Molniya 3-26 r2 1340 x 96 km
1 16125U 85091D 01048.47413679 .17422783 66506-5 29468-3 0 9435
2 16125 61.9254 243.9476 0876511 289.8027 138.1117 14.52354114121739
Note: The latest elset shows this running 35 sec late against
yesterday's prediction.
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Object: #20094 = 89- 48 F = Raduga 1-1 aux motor
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 17 11:37 Feb 20 08:36 +-2d 46.5 N 22.8 W
SatEvo Feb 17 19:30 Feb 20 16:14 +-21h
Latest elset:
Raduga 1-1 aux motor 1002 x 122 km
1 20094U 89048F 01048.63610221 .10809803 92393-5 49131-3 0 2059
2 20094 46.4546 177.2303 0633931 51.5818 314.0237 15.01568520166097
Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 43 deg S at ~20:30
local time. Eclipse exit occurs northbound a little beyond perigee
before dawn near 43 deg N.
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Object: #25314 = 98- 24 D = Nilesat Ariane deb (Spelda)
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 17 11:34 Feb 17 23:53 +-10h 1.5 N 93.4 W
SatEvo Feb 17 20:10 Feb 18 00:55 +-5h 6.3 N 154.7 E
Latest elset:
Nilesat Ariane deb (Spelda) 545 x 148 km
1 25314U 98024D 01048.21595129 .21629798 -31096-4 43520-2 0 5254
2 25314 6.6278 251.9206 0294575 35.9500 326.0254 15.74388665 56292
SatEvo prediction:
Nilesat Ariane deb (Spelda) 339 x 137 km
1 25314U 98024D 01048.84243474 .50796948 51103+0 27451-2 0 95259
2 25314 6.6261 246.6275 0152963 46.4300 314.8300 16.13278000 56393
Nilesat Ariane deb (Spelda) 304 x 134 km
1 25314U 98024D 01048.90407692 .63763184 92213+0 25816-2 0 95250
2 25314 6.6258 246.0875 0128650 47.4991 313.5810 16.20257912 56403
Nilesat Ariane deb (Spelda) 258 x 130 km
1 25314U 98024D 01048.96540343 .92484583 23680+1 24151-2 0 95256
2 25314 6.6254 245.5441 0097243 48.5750 312.2567 16.29552295 56417
Nilesat Ariane deb (Spelda) 175 x 116 km
1 25314U 98024D 01049.02623619 3.16667448 50000+2 23702-2 0 95252
2 25314 6.6245 244.9956 0044871 49.6610 310.7298 16.47705860 56420
Note: The latest elset shows this running 2 sec late against yesterday's
prediction. Further elsets are long overdue, particularly in view of
the imminence of this decay which I place near northern apex over
the western Pacific, to the NE of New Guinea.
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Object: #26600 = 00- 69 B = Beidou-1 Long March 3 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 17 06:09 Feb 19 04:35 +-1d 4.4 N 28.0 W
SatEvo Feb 17 20:00 Feb 19 06:36 +-15h
Latest elset:
Beidou-1 LM3 r 3348 x 106 km
1 26600U 00069B 01048.54282094 .48441765 -18741-4 20968-2 0 1529
2 26600 24.9140 187.7422 2000140 319.6131 86.4192 11.89823557 3482
Note: The latest elset has this 6.8 min late against yesterday's
prediction. The prediction remains very uncertain.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Feb 17 2001 - 12:26:19 PST