Decay watch: 2001 Feb 17

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Feb 17 2001 - 12:23:37 PST

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    From the latest update to my Decay Watch page - go there for predicted
    elsets...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #16112 = 85- 91 A = Molniya 3-26
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 16 16:22     Feb 20 13:43 +-2d        61.5 S     8.8 W
    SatEvo     Feb 17 19:45     Feb 22 04:17 +-2d
    
    Latest elsets:
    Molniya 3-26                                     6856 x 101 km
    1 16112U 85091A   01048.41326549  .31260835  46912-5  20339-2 0    08
    2 16112  62.5915  66.3923 3426264 263.4174 296.2885  8.87240863112947
    Molniya 3-26                                     6773 x 75 km
    1 16112U 85091A   01048.51931839  .29302650  48964-5  50116-3 0    19
    2 16112  62.5650  66.2967 3416257 263.3142 277.0306  8.94575729112951
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 16 minutes late against
    yesterday's prediction. My new prediction may be just as poor.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #16125 = 85- 91 D = Molniya 3-26 r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 16 23:14     Feb 19 21:25 +-2d        51.1 S    83.8 E
    SatEvo     Feb 17 19:50     Feb 20 05:15 +-21h
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 3-26 r2                                  1340 x 96 km
    1 16125U 85091D   01048.47413679  .17422783  66506-5  29468-3 0  9435
    2 16125  61.9254 243.9476 0876511 289.8027 138.1117 14.52354114121739
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 35 sec late against
    yesterday's prediction.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #20094 = 89- 48 F = Raduga 1-1 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 17 11:37     Feb 20 08:36 +-2d        46.5 N    22.8 W
    SatEvo     Feb 17 19:30     Feb 20 16:14 +-21h
    
    Latest elset:
    Raduga 1-1 aux motor                             1002 x 122 km
    1 20094U 89048F   01048.63610221  .10809803  92393-5  49131-3 0  2059
    2 20094  46.4546 177.2303 0633931  51.5818 314.0237 15.01568520166097
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 43 deg S at ~20:30
    local time. Eclipse exit occurs northbound a little beyond perigee 
    before dawn near 43 deg N.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25314 = 98- 24 D = Nilesat Ariane deb (Spelda)
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 17 11:34     Feb 17 23:53 +-10h        1.5 N    93.4 W
    SatEvo     Feb 17 20:10     Feb 18 00:55 +-5h         6.3 N   154.7 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Nilesat Ariane deb (Spelda)                      545 x 148 km
    1 25314U 98024D   01048.21595129  .21629798 -31096-4  43520-2 0  5254
    2 25314   6.6278 251.9206 0294575  35.9500 326.0254 15.74388665 56292
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Nilesat Ariane deb (Spelda)                      339 x 137 km
    1 25314U 98024D   01048.84243474  .50796948  51103+0  27451-2 0 95259
    2 25314   6.6261 246.6275 0152963  46.4300 314.8300 16.13278000 56393
    Nilesat Ariane deb (Spelda)                      304 x 134 km
    1 25314U 98024D   01048.90407692  .63763184  92213+0  25816-2 0 95250
    2 25314   6.6258 246.0875 0128650  47.4991 313.5810 16.20257912 56403
    Nilesat Ariane deb (Spelda)                      258 x 130 km
    1 25314U 98024D   01048.96540343  .92484583  23680+1  24151-2 0 95256
    2 25314   6.6254 245.5441 0097243  48.5750 312.2567 16.29552295 56417
    Nilesat Ariane deb (Spelda)                      175 x 116 km
    1 25314U 98024D   01049.02623619 3.16667448  50000+2  23702-2 0 95252
    2 25314   6.6245 244.9956 0044871  49.6610 310.7298 16.47705860 56420
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 2 sec late against yesterday's 
    prediction. Further elsets are long overdue, particularly in view of 
    the imminence of this decay which I place near northern apex over
    the western Pacific, to the NE of New Guinea.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26600 = 00- 69 B = Beidou-1 Long March 3 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 17 06:09     Feb 19 04:35 +-1d         4.4 N    28.0 W
    SatEvo     Feb 17 20:00     Feb 19 06:36 +-15h
    
    Latest elset:
    Beidou-1 LM3 r                                   3348 x 106 km
    1 26600U 00069B   01048.54282094  .48441765 -18741-4  20968-2 0  1529
    2 26600  24.9140 187.7422 2000140 319.6131  86.4192 11.89823557  3482
    
    Note: The latest elset has this 6.8 min late against yesterday's 
    prediction. The prediction remains very uncertain.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Feb 17 2001 - 12:26:19 PST