Decay watch: 2001 Feb 15

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Feb 15 2001 - 11:57:58 PST

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    The following is taken from my updated Decay Watch page...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #22986 = 94-  8 F = Raduga 1-3 Proton deb
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 15 14:07     Feb 15 12:25 +-18m       21.8 S    28.8 E
    SatEvo     Feb 15 18:50     Feb 15 11:59 -10+30m     40.5 N    41.7 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Raduga 1-3 Proton deb F                          242 x 106 km
    1 22986U 94008F   01046.48079415  .59227626  11131-4  45091-3 0  2341
    2 22986  46.3981 157.6929 0103142  90.7170 276.1901 16.36968564113122
    
    Note: I show this decaying over the N Atlantic just after perigee on 
    the above rev.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25314 = 98- 24 D = Nilesat Ariane deb (Spelda)
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 15 17:47     Feb 17 17:50 +-1d         0.0 S    12.9 E
    SatEvo     Feb 15 19:00     Feb 17 20:12 +-16h
    
    Latest elset:
    Nilesat Ariane deb (Spelda)                      853 x 156 km
    1 25314U 98024D   01046.40817327  .11343536 -27737-4  47741-2 0  5157
    2 25314   6.6314 266.2988 0505882   7.2354 353.5402 15.20503414 56016
    
    SatEvo prediction: See my Decay Watch page
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 5 sec late against yesterday's
    prediction.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26600 = 00- 69 B = Beidou-1 Long March 3 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 15 04:58     Feb 19 04:49 +-2d        12.9 N   108.8 E
    SatEvo     Feb 19 19:05     Feb 20 01:35 +-2d
    
    Latest elset:
    Beidou-1 LM3 r                                   4994 x 106 km
    1 26600U 00069B   01046.62078334  .29801982 -16618-4  17709-2 0  1403
    2 26600  24.9272 194.7563 2737184 307.4233  30.9301 10.29191926  3279
    
    SatEvo prediction: See my Decay Watch page
    
    Note: This low-perigee decayer enters eclipse while southbound near 
    southern apex in the evening sky. It leaves eclipse northbound before
    dawn. The predictions are very uncertain.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Feb 15 2001 - 12:02:03 PST