SatEvo decay list #112 (issued 2001 February 10) This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe. Information about SeeSat-L is available at http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 2001 April 5, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date. This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle and all newly launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,400 satellites. This is available in zipped form from the same address. I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ This includes my predicted elsets for these objects. # Designation Name ---- Decay (2001) ---- Predicted Actual? 23982 94- 29 AC STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 21.3 22452 92- 93 ER C 2227 Zenit deb January 21.8 24455 95- 58 H C 2322 Zenit deb January 22.8 14915 78- 26 GQ Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb January 23.5 14520 83-114 D Molniya 1-59 r2 January 24.99 Note 4 26689 01- 3 B Progress M1-5 Soyuz r January 25.92 25576 65-109 G Transit 10 deb January 26.1 20456 77- 65 GD GMS 1 Dlt deb January 26.3 24176 94- 29 JB STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 27.5 24361 94- 29 PN STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 30.7 26263 99- 57 EZ CBERS LM4 deb February 1.4 25313 98- 24 C Nilesat Ariane 44P r February 1.63 23976 94- 29 W STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 1.7 25451 87- 68 BY Metr 2-16 Tsyklon deb February 2.5 26649 99- 57 LF CBERS LM4 deb February 3.9 26097 00- 4 N Picosat deb February 7.3 Note 1 26663 99- 57 LV CBERS LM4 deb February 7.8 26303 86- 73 D NOAA 10 deb February 8.5 26606 00- 71 B Navstar 49 Delta 2 r February 8.79 3560 68- 97 N Cosmos 252 deb February 9.6 Note 1 8432 72- 58 FM Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb February 11.0 25076 96- 49 H Fast Pegasus deb February 11.1 3687 68- 97 AE Cosmos 252 deb February 14 16939 86- 68 D Molniya 1-68 r2 February 14? Note 5 22986 94- 8 F Raduga 1-3 Proton deb February 16 23419 94- 77 K Cosmos 2297 deb February 16 26537 83- 44 FR Cosmos 1461 deb February 17 25314 98- 24 D Nilesat Ariane Spelda February 18 25720 89-100 BR C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb February 18 26600 00- 69 B Beidou-1 LM3 r February 20 16125 85- 91 D Molniya 3-26 r2 February 21 20094 89- 48 F Raduga 1-1 aux motor February 21 26328 99- 57 HM CBERS LM4 deb February 23 16112 85- 91 A Molniya 3-26 February 27? 12948 81- 53 EC Cosmos 1275 deb March 1 22521 93- 11 A Astro D March 3 4215 69- 82 CE OPS 1807 ThAg deb March 4 17152 86- 19 AF Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb March 4 26062 00- 4 B OCS March 4 4620 70- 89 G Cosmos 374 deb March 6 4623 70- 91 C Cosmos 375 deb March 6 26327 99- 57 HL CBERS LM4 deb March 6 14361 81- 53 HX Cosmos 1275 deb March 7 26059 00- 3 B Zhongxing-22 CZ-3A r March 10 23019 94- 14 A Koronas 1 March 11 22466 92- 93 FF Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb March 13 24217 94- 29 KQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb March 13 9968 61- 15 KQ Transit 4A deb March 14 24441 94- 29 SX STEP-2 Pegasus deb March 17 19733 88-115 D Molniya 1-74 r2 March 19 26691 01- 4 B GPS 2R-7 Delta 2 r March 21 26173 99- 57 BK CBERS LM4 deb March 23 23951 96- 40 D Arabsat 2A Spelda March 25 26177 99- 57 BP CBERS LM4 deb March 27 26326 99- 57 HK CBERS LM4 deb March 28 23029 94- 16 C GPS 2-24 r2 March 30 22233 92- 79 C GPS 2-16 r2 March 31 26399 00- 36 F Cosmos 2371 aux motor March 31 24385 94- 29 QN STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 1 21840 70- 25 QL Nimbus 4 ThAg deb April 3 16609 86- 17 A Mir April 8 Note 3 23133 94- 35 B UHF F/O 3 r April 8 25013 97- 63 A STEP M4 April 10 15957 85- 70 E Raduga 16 aux motor April 30 5143 71- 31 B Meteor 1-8 r May 10960 77- 53 B NTS 2 Altas r May 11458 79- 67 B Cosmos 1116 r May 25107 97- 82 D Iridium 48 May 11252 79- 5 B Meteor 1-29 r June Notes 1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay. 2. No recent elsets. 3. The estimate for #16609, Mir, assumes a natural decay from its current orbit. In fact, there are plans to deorbit it in late-February. 4. #14520, the Molniya 1-59 r2, had been reported as decaying on about 2001 January 15 in SatEvo decay list #110. After being lost for some time, it was recovered and decayed as above. 5. No elsets for #16939, Molniya 1-68 r2, have been issued since February 7 during a period when luni-solar perturbations are expected to be driving the already-low perigee height very sharply down. Alan -- Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ * ----------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe' in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
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