mir splash down calculations

From: Tony Beresford (starman@camtech.net.au)
Date: Sat Feb 03 2001 - 23:21:16 PST

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    Fellow satellite trackers and other lurkers.
    This is slightly off topic so please reply privately.
    The calculations below assume a MIR splash down at
    47S, 140W, which is some 2000 Km east on NZ rather than Australia.
    If that is reached on the ascending path, it implies
    a descending path that crosses 35S at around 135E,
    just to the SW of the southern tip of Eyre Peninsula in my
    home state of SA, with earlier points having been across the deserts
    of Western Australia. I think with the large number of De-orbits
    one might have got more reports( of one sort or another)
     if this was the case.
    So the splash down should be on the "descending" path,
    which implies a trajectory with the following points,
    20S, 177.6W, 35S 162.3W which is over the territory of the Kingdom
    of Tonga.
    I would appreciate confirmation of these approximate calculations
    by other persons. I would also appreciate information on NOTAMS
    or suchlike isued by the agencies of the Russian federation
    that might confirm that my deduction is correct. In my local press
    there have been some confused stories about the trajectory,
    mainly caused by  a beleif that ALL positions seen in wire service
    internet sources have to be correct.
    tony beresford
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