Decay watch: 2000 Feb 16

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Feb 16 2000 - 14:16:31 PST

  • Next message: Tony Beresford: "Feb 16 Observations"

    #25769 = 99- 30 B = Starshine
    
    I still show an earlier decay than do SpaceCom and Harro, with my latest
    estimate being for decay near a northbound equator crossing at 68.2 E
    over the Indian Ocean at Feb 18 10:03 UTC +-9h. This comes at the end of
    the orbit described by this predicted elset:
    Starshine        1.0  0.0  0.0  9.0 d 0.30       136 x 136 km
    1 25769U 99030B   00049.35822718  .44592777  24402+1  41467-3 0 93220
    2 25769  51.5669   6.9339 0000152 252.1749 107.8234 16.51380307 42073
    This orbit takes it over E China to the Aleutian Is then down the E
    Pacific to landfall near Santiago, Chile, at 09:30 UTC. It crosses the S
    Atlantic and misses South Africa on its way to the Indian Ocean. If it
    survives into the next orbit, it overflies E India (10:08 - 10:10 UTC),
    Central and N China, the E Pacific again to S Chile at 11:00 and Cape
    Town, S Africa, at 11:19 UTC. SpaceCom predicts decay at Feb 18 17:37
    +-1d near 40.8 N, 3.6 W which is close to Madrid, Spain.
    
    #25911 = 99- 49 E = Globalstar 33 Soyuz r
    
    I show this decay slipping to Feb 17 19:26 +-6h near the equator at
    150.0 E. This is over Melanesia following a northbound crossing
    Australia from the E of Albany, W Australia, at 19:14 UTC to the Gulf
    of Carpentaria at 19:21. My predicted elset for this equator crossing
    is:
    Globlstar 33 r   6.0  3.0  0.0  4.5 d   14       116 x 104 km
    1 25911U 99049E   00048.80913993 1.09822715  14142+2  25040-3 0 92526
    2 25911  51.9231 228.4257 0009153 254.3046 105.5944 16.61350764 22857
    
    
    See http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ for more.
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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