Decay watch: 2000 February 1

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Feb 01 2000 - 02:44:11 PST

  • Next message: Harro.Zimmer: "Re.: reentry over Argentina"

    Although it may have already decayed, there is a chance that the reentry
    of #25176 (88- 11 B = COMETS H2 r) may be visible from the S USA within
    the next couple of hours. I predict the decay for Feb 1 12:07 UTC +-3h
    near 27.2 N, 114.8 W
    
    Both SpaceCom and I show this decay moving earlier, though SpaceCom's
    time of Feb 1 10:08 +-7h (issued 11 hours ago) is earlier and already
    gone as I write this. I suspect that some of this discrepancy is due to
    SatEvo's handling of the atmospheric flow transition which, I believe,
    should extend the life by one orbit. Unfortunately, no elsets have
    appeared for more than 13 hours. I show decay while northbound over
    Mexico's Baja California peninsula. If it is still in orbit, it
    overflies Houston, Texas, at 12:11 UTC and New Orleans at 12:12 and
    Jacksonville, Florida, at 12:14.
    
    My predicted elset for the final rev:
    COMETS H2 r     13.5  2.5  0.0  3.0 d 33.6       116 x 105 km
    1 25176U 98011B   00032.49392525 1.67132425  24994+2  36464-3 0 97818
    2 25176  29.9745 135.7739 0008447 254.2894 105.6174 16.61144092101607
    
    See http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ for more details.
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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