Decay watch: February 24

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 24 Feb 1999 09:06:05 +0000

SpaceCom has recovered Molniya 3-28 and issued the first decay notice
for it...
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Object: #16683 = 86- 31 A = Molniya 3-28

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Feb 24 03:46     Feb 24 18:56 +-9h        30.5 S    93.8 W

SatEvo     Feb 24 08:55     Feb 24 20:51 +-5h        61.1 S    62.5 W

Current elset:
Molniya 3-28                                     2064 x 77 km
1 16683U 86031A   99055.29944012  .07054093  19435-4  56635-4 0  5473
2 16683  61.4565 146.8947 1333766 262.5033 247.2960 13.50475516 94664

SatEvo predicted elsets:
Molniya 3-28                                     1941 x 77 km
1 16683U 86031A   99055.33935257 1.42442434  48239+0  11069-2 0 95477
2 16683  61.4478 146.7782 1261202 262.5207  83.0098 13.67443224 94679
Molniya 3-28                                     1628 x 77 km
1 16683U 86031A   99055.48374914 1.68703561  75964+0  11448-2 0 95475
2 16683  61.4293 146.3394 1072824 262.5863  85.1185 14.12075315 94692
Molniya 3-28                                     1281 x 76 km
1 16683U 86031A   99055.62336610 2.13308709  14675+1  11831-2 0 95477
2 16683  61.4076 145.8837 0853766 262.6551  87.5735 14.64725296 94710
Molniya 3-28                                     858 x 74 km
1 16683U 86031A   99055.75757013 3.18726863  49575+1  12537-2 0 95477
2 16683  61.3796 145.4059 0572721 262.7280  90.7298 15.33418762 94735
Molniya 3-28                                     570 x 72 km
1 16683U 86031A   99055.82221550 4.89562888  15998+2  13628-2 0 95476
2 16683  61.3653 145.1549 0371696 262.7668  92.9940 15.83357305 94745

Note: A couple of elsets appeared on Monday, than no more until nine
hours ago. It is decaying much more quickly than I expected and has only
hours left. The drag term in the current elset is much too low - as
usual the predictions are from my analysis of all the latest elsets.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/