SatEvo decay list #71

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 21 Feb 1999 19:31:46 +0000

SatEvo decay list #71  (issued 1999 February 20)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses 
is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L,
and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
   http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html

The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published 
orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. 
Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate 
their decay by 1999 April 15, although some larger and/or more 
interesting decayers are included beyond that date. Drag rates 
increased sharply in the past week as solar activity reached its
highest level of the current solar cycle.

This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via 
my SatEvo page at
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all
the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus
elsets for other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle, 
and all newly launched and/or catalogued objects.


   #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (1999) -----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 22584   93- 17 D   GPS 2-19 r2                    February 10.61
 16187   85- 99 A   Molniya 1-65                   February 13.64
 24228   94- 29 LB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             February 14
 19771   89-  4 E   Gorizont 17 aux mot            February 15.29
 25628   99-  5 C   Telstar 6 Proton platform      February 15.81
 25627   99-  5 B   Telstar 6 Proton r             February 16.95
 25217   87- 68 AU  Meteor 2-16 deb                February 17  Note 2
 23075   89- 89 BW  COBE deb                       February 18? Note 1
 13103   82-  6 C   OPS 2849 deb                   February 18.52
  5399   71- 67 L   OV1-20/OV1-21 deb              February 19  Note 2
 19560   88- 81 E   GSTAR 3 Ariane 3 deb           February 19? Note 1
 25633   99-  7 B   Soyuz TM-29 Soyuz r   February 21.7
 24224   94- 29 KX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February 22
 19145   87- 20 BE  Cosmos 1823 deb       February 23
 22440   92- 93 EH  C 2227 Zenit deb      February 23
 14356   81- 53 HS  Cosmos 1275 deb       February 24
 23973   94- 29 T   STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February 24
 23993   94- 29 AP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February 26
 25186   87- 68 M   Meteor 2-16 deb       February 26? Note 1
 15551   69- 82 KQ  OPS 1807 T-Agena deb     March  3
 25197   87- 68 Y   Meteor 2-16 deb          March  4
 16683   86- 31 A   Molniya 3-28             March  5? Note 1
 24369   94- 29 PW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March  5
 24270   94- 29 MV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March  8
 24430   94- 29 SJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 11
 25472   98- 51 F   Iridium 82 Delta r       March 16
   175   61- 15 AZ  Transit 4a r deb         March 17
 23907   96- 29 B   NOSS 2-3 r               March 17
 15440   84-123 B   NOAA 9 deb               March 19
 25166   98-  8 E   Globalstar 1 Delta r     March 19
 25125   97- 85 C   Earlybird 1 Start 1 deb  March 21
 25562   98- 71 C   SWAS Pegasus deb         March 24
 25452   87- 68 BZ  Meteor 2-16 deb          March 26
 25565   98- 69 E   STS-88 deb (socket)      March 31
 25607   99-  1 C   MPL Delta 2 r1           April  4
 25580   98- 74 D   Iridm 11A Smart Disp     April  9
  8940   75-  4 W   Landsat 2 Delta 1 deb    April 10
 23578   94- 85 Y   Rad Rosto deb            April 10
  7418   74- 66 B   Cosmos 673 r             April 26
 22583   93- 17 C   GPS 2-19 r1                May  3
 14329   83- 94 B   Satcom 2R Delta r          May 12
 12519   81- 54 E   Molniya 3-16 r2            May 13
  8755   76- 24 B   Cosmos 808 r               May 21
 25347   98- 32 F   Iridium 70 Delta r         May 26
 20352   89- 96 A   Granat                    June  3
  4120   69- 84 B   Meteor 1-2 r              June
 23186   94- 43 B   APStar 1 CZ-3 r           June
 25625   99-  4 E   Globalstar M36 Soyuz r1   July


Notes

1. No recent elsets.

2. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/