Decay watch: February 21

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 21 Feb 1999 10:11:41 +0000

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Object: #25633 = 99- 7 B = Soyuz TM-29 Soyuz r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Feb 20 13:48     Feb 21 20:54 +-19h       50.8 S    35.6 E
SpaceCom   Feb 20 19:52     Feb 21 19:01 +-14h        3.8 N    43.4 W

SatEvo     Feb 20 13:55     Feb 21 16:03 +-9h         0         3.7 E
SatEvo     Feb 21 10:00     Feb 21 16:03 +-4h         0         3.7 E

Current elset:
Soyuz TM-29 Soyuz r                              196 x 177 km
1 25633U 99007B   99051.84596613  .04945781  12192-4  81094-3 0    94
2 25633  51.6457 220.4183 0014268  92.7922 267.4772 16.32309243   111

SatEvo predicted elsets:
Soyuz TM-29 Soyuz r                              171 x 159 km
1 25633U 99007B   99052.39575788  .11781155  11425+0  80611-3 0 90092
2 25633  51.6435 217.3300 0009523  95.0948 265.0139 16.40275221   203
Soyuz TM-29 Soyuz r                              167 x 155 km
1 25633U 99007B   99052.45664963  .14514900  19764+0  80355-3 0 90097
2 25633  51.6429 216.9853 0008672  95.3518 264.7472 16.41863492   215
Soyuz TM-29 Soyuz r                              161 x 151 km
1 25633U 99007B   99052.51747464  .19470317  39717+0  68605-3 0 90094
2 25633  51.6424 216.6402 0007626  95.6092 264.4778 16.43896746   222
Soyuz TM-29 Soyuz r                              152 x 144 km
1 25633U 99007B   99052.57820904  .31255666  11411+1  61108-3 0 90096
2 25633  51.6416 216.2943 0006195  95.8670 264.2036 16.46853675   236
Soyuz TM-29 Soyuz r                              133 x 129 km
1 25633U 99007B   99052.63878785 1.12816002  23957+2  75490-3 0 90098
2 25633  51.6400 215.9473 0003523  96.1258 263.9143 16.53252966   241

Note: OIG stopped updating the elsets and the SpaceCom decay notices in
its database shortly after the current elset (above) was posted. It
shows the Soyuz rocket running only 0.17 sec early against the
prediction in my previous DW note - it had been 15 milliseconds early on
the preceding orbit. My decay prediction is unchanged but more certain.
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/