Decay watch: February 18

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 18 Feb 1999 20:27:00 +0000

Five further SpaceCom decay warnings for #13103 but only one published 
elset during the last 30 hours of its life...

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Object: #13103 = 82- 6 C = OPS 2849 deb

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Feb 12 13:04     Feb 19 10:40 +-4d        54.5 S    91.1 E
SpaceCom   Feb 14 22:09     Feb 18 19:47 +-2d        33.5 S    36.1 W
SpaceCom   Feb 15 20:59     Feb 18 21:26 +-2d        74.8 S    84.4 W
SpaceCom   Feb 16 20:55     Feb 18 20:46 +-1d        82.3 N    29.6 E
SpaceCom   Feb 18 01:06     Feb 18 17:59 +-11h       49.1 N     4.4 E
SpaceCom   Feb 18 03:09     Feb 18 14:09 +-7h        81.0 S     1.9 W
SpaceCom   Feb 18 09:39     Feb 18 15:04 +-5h        48.4 N    48.1 E
SpaceCom   Feb 18 12:32     Feb 18 14:40 +-34m       30.7 N   138.7 W
SpaceCom   Feb 18 19:13     Feb 18 14:40 +-34m       30.6 N   138.6 W

SatEvo     Feb 12 19:40     Feb 21.1 +-3d
SatEvo     Feb 17 20:35     Feb 18 11:32 +-10h        0.0      88.5 E
SatEvo     Feb 18 18:30     Feb 18 12:29 +-1h        52.2 S    67.5 E

Final elset:
OPS 2849 deb                                     157 x 148 km
1 13103U 82006C   99049.48102937  .16007018  00000-0  44919-3 0   757
2 13103  97.4705 232.3505 0006512 298.8251  61.3049 16.45132538212715

Note: I believe that this final elset is for its last orbit, though the 
drag term appears to be less than half of that expected. It might have 
reached the following equator crossing at 13:00 UTC but I do not think 
it could have survived until SpaceCom's decay time more than one orbit
later still.
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
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