Decay watch: February 17

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 17 Feb 1999 19:02:35 +0000

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Object: #25627 = 99- 5 B = Telstar 6 Proton rocket

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Feb 15 07:36     Feb 25 20:18 +-6d        51.6 N   158.7 E
SpaceCom   Feb 15 10:26     Feb 20 21:45 +-3d        10.2 S    88.2 W
SpaceCom   Feb 15 18:35     Feb 17 03:06 +-20h       10.5 N   159.6 W
SpaceCom   Feb 16 02:21     Feb 17 00:57 +-14h        2.2 S    59.9 E
SpaceCom   Feb 16 12:16     Feb 16 23:42 +-7h        34.5 N   113.8 E
SpaceCom   Feb 16 17:03     Feb 16 22:58 +-4h        35.2 S    54.1 W
SpaceCom   Feb 16 21:21     Feb 16 23:14 +-1h        45.9 S    33.3 E
SpaceCom   Feb 16 23:41     Feb 16 23:14 +-1h        45.9 S    33.3 E

SatEvo     Feb 15 21:00     Feb 16 23:21 +-6h        19 S      70 E
SatEvo     Feb 16 20:55     Feb 16 22:42 +-1h         6 N      89 W
SatEvo     Feb 17 18:00     Feb 16 22:42 +-1h         6 N      89 W

Final elset:
Telstar 6 Proton r                               151 x 122 km
1 25627U 99005B   99047.85657796  .19897183  12758-4  14724-3 0   183
2 25627  51.5947 222.8413 0022164 277.8174  82.0400 16.51034891   268

Note: The final elset has it only 0.6 sec late on the final prediction
I posted here yesterday. A new analysis, using just the final three
elsets, again leads to decay at 22:42 UTC. However, this would imply
that it was still in orbit when it flew down the length of California
and Arizona only minutes earlier. If this was so, I am very surprised
that no elset was generated for that rather critical orbit - it should
have been along the lines of:
Telstar 6 Proton r                               134 x 115 km
1 25627U 99005B   99047.91702511  .61258585  76775+1  26808-3 0 90180
2 25627  51.5934 222.4929 0014313 278.0780  81.7596 16.55659068   271
After all, elsets had been released for seven of the previous eight
orbits. I speculate that it may, indeed, have decayed prior to 22:30,
before it reached the west coast of the USA.
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Object: #13103 = 82- 6 C = OPS 2849 deb

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Feb 12 13:04     Feb 19 10:40 +-4d        54.5 S    91.1 E
SpaceCom   Feb 14 22:09     Feb 18 19:47 +-2d        33.5 S    36.1 W
SpaceCom   Feb 15 20:59     Feb 18 21:26 +-2d        74.8 S    84.4 W
SpaceCom   Feb 16 20:55     Feb 18 20:46 +-1d        82.3 N    29.6 E

SatEvo     Feb 12 19:40     Feb 21.1 +-3d

Note: Still no published elsets since that for 99041.17
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Alan

-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/