Decay watch: February 16

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 16 Feb 1999 20:59:54 +0000

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Object: #25627 = 99- 5 B = Telstar 6 Proton rocket

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Feb 15 07:36     Feb 25 20:18 +-6d        51.6 N   158.7 E
SpaceCom   Feb 15 10:26     Feb 20 21:45 +-3d        10.2 S    88.2 W
SpaceCom   Feb 15 18:35     Feb 17 03:06 +-20h       10.5 N   159.6 W
SpaceCom   Feb 16 02:21     Feb 17 00:57 +-14h        2.2 S    59.9 E
SpaceCom   Feb 16 12:16     Feb 16 23:42 +-7h        34.5 N   113.8 E
SpaceCom   Feb 16 17:03     Feb 16 22:58 +-4h        35.2 S    54.1 W

SatEvo     Feb 15 21:00     Feb 16 23:21 +-6h        19 S      70 E
SatEvo     Feb 16 20:55     Feb 16 22:42 +-1h         6 N      89 W

Current elset:
Telstar 6 Proton r                               161 x 126 km
1 25627U 99005B   99047.79599472  .16086031  12700-4  15703-3 0   175
2 25627  51.5962 223.1881 0026627 277.9633  81.8260 16.48566378   253

SatEvo prediction for the final orbits:
Telstar 6 Proton r                               149 x 122 km
1 25627U 99005B   99047.85655215  .29203681  10703+1  20484-3 0 90174
2 25627  51.5954 222.8406 0021325 278.2232  81.5350 16.51492077   268
Telstar 6 Proton r                               128 x 112 km
1 25627U 99005B   99047.91699130 1.00377142  29080+2  36104-3 0 90174
2 25627  51.5939 222.4919 0011656 278.4842  81.3837 16.57376848   273

Note: The current elset shows this running 9 seconds late against 
the SatEvo prediction I posted here yesterday. I place decay on the 
approach to a southbound equator crossing at 22:44 near 85 deg W. That
orbit takes it over SE over the USA and Mexico from N California at
22:30 UTC to Mexico City at 22:38.
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Object: #25628 = 99- 5 C = Telstar 6 Proton platform

One further elset appeared (no change to analysis of yesterday's
decay):
Tlstr 6 Proton plat                              157 x 138 km
1 25628U 99005C   99046.75933237  .52435686  12508-4  85791-3 0    86
2 25628  51.5958 229.0324 0014904 248.3526 111.6182 16.46847798    97
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Object: #13103 = 82- 6 C = OPS 2849 deb

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Feb 12 13:04     Feb 19 10:40 +-4d        54.5 S    91.1 E
SpaceCom   Feb 14 22:09     Feb 18 19:47 +-2d        33.5 S    36.1 W
SpaceCom   Feb 15 20:59     Feb 18 21:26 +-2d        74.8 S    84.4 W

SatEvo     Feb 12 19:40     Feb 21.1 +-3d

Note: Still no further elsets since that for 99041.17
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/