This is the first of an experimental restructured form of my "Decay watch" notes. It brings together the SpaceCom decay notices, my own SatEvo decay predictions, and the current OIG and SatEvo-predicted elsets on an object-by-object basis. Comments welcome... --------------------------------------------------------------------- Object: #16187 = 85- 99 A = Molniya 1-65 Decay predictions: Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude UTC UTC deg deg SpaceCom Feb 11 10:12 Feb 13 08:19 +-1d 61.6 S 135.3 E SpaceCom Feb 12 09:58 Feb 13 10:13 +-15h 61.7 S 98.6 E SatEvo Feb 11 20:15 Feb 13 11:53 +-9h 61 S 80 E SatEvo Feb 12 20:15 Feb 13 13:29 +-5h 61.7 S 56.9 E Current elset: Molniya 1-65 3143 x 77 km 1 16187U 85099A 99043.59408928 .05263536 13943-4 54111-4 0 2728 2 16187 61.6989 127.9857 1918910 262.3286 230.5576 12.16111357 98105 My SatEvo-predicted elsets based (as always) on an analysis using several recent elsets: Molniya 1-65 2666 x 80 km 1 16187U 85099A 99043.80097858 1.34069726 35250+0 14987-2 0 92720 2 16187 61.6660 127.4836 1668141 262.3949 78.4282 12.72205493 98130 Molniya 1-65 2134 x 80 km 1 16187U 85099A 99044.03153430 1.65990122 61853+0 16166-2 0 92721 2 16187 61.6316 126.8700 1371716 262.4773 81.7760 13.40700362 98168 Molniya 1-65 1541 x 79 km 1 16187U 85099A 99044.24966018 2.27507677 15038+1 17296-2 0 92726 2 16187 61.5932 126.2193 1016782 262.5664 85.7850 14.24594896 98193 Molniya 1-65 1064 x 77 km 1 16187U 85099A 99044.38735968 3.28440516 40242+1 18228-2 0 92720 2 16187 61.5672 125.7575 0710207 262.6307 89.2494 14.98753883 98219 Molniya 1-65 760 x 76 km 1 16187U 85099A 99044.45345744 4.64444546 11521+2 19481-2 0 92726 2 16187 61.5471 125.5145 0503216 262.6650 91.5906 15.49649659 98225 Molniya 1-65 270 x 75 km 1 16187U 85099A 99044.51716684 9.99999999 50000+2 21764-2 0 92720 2 16187 61.5252 125.2575 0149279 262.7016 95.5993 16.37546965 98233 Note: Beware - the latest, and several recent elsets for this have drag terms which are much too low or are set at the ceiling value of 0.99999999. This makes my analysis just a bit more difficult. The latest elset shows it running 87 seconds early against the prediction I posted yesterday. It could easily decay one or two orbits earlier, near perigee at 61 deg S. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Object: #19771 = 89- 4 E = Gorizont 17 aux motor Decay predictions: Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude UTC UTC deg deg SpaceCom Feb 11 15:15 Feb 15 11:49 +-18h 46.4 N 41.6 W SpaceCom Feb 12 04:41 Feb 15 05:01 +-2d 42.6 S 106.5 W SatEvo Feb 11 20:15 Feb 16.0 +-0.9d SatEvo Feb 12 20:50 Feb 15 11:29 +-15h 22 N 101 W Current elset: Gorizont 17 aux motor 645 x 140 km 1 19771U 89004E 99043.51759435 .07531289 10011-4 75058-3 0 4861 2 19771 46.3705 211.0617 0373400 17.3604 343.9972 15.58339449162623 SatEvo prediction: Gorizont 17 aux motor 600 x 139 km 1 19771U 89004E 99044.02915005 .08280008 63011-2 72679-3 0 94867 2 19771 46.3681 208.1836 0342011 20.2396 341.0840 15.66358593162703 Gorizont 17 aux motor 550 x 137 km 1 19771U 89004E 99044.53795381 .09429236 90782-2 71379-3 0 94866 2 19771 46.3655 205.2858 0307089 23.1389 338.2151 15.75333737162780 Gorizont 17 aux motor 493 x 136 km 1 19771U 89004E 99045.04364794 .11162019 14483-1 70293-3 0 94866 2 19771 46.3626 202.3655 0267111 26.0609 335.2597 15.85677821162865 Note: The latest elset shows this to be 45 sec early on yesterday's prediction, which gave too great a weight to a published elset with a too-low perigee. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Object: #13103 = 82- 6 C = OPS 2849 deb Decay predictions: Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude UTC UTC deg deg SpaceCom Feb 12 13:04 Feb 19 10:40 +-4d 54.5 S 91.1 E SatEvo Feb 12 19:40 Feb 21.1 +-3d Current elset: OPS 2849 deb 268 x 259 km 1 13103U 82006C 99041.17710652 .00578256 15951-3 90767-3 0 345 2 13103 97.4709 222.8800 0006388 276.8846 83.1708 16.03951669 69686 No SatEvo elsets provided at present. Note: A new addition to SpaceCom's list. Elsets for this were declassified recently. According to the new 60d Decay Forecast, this has a Radar Cross Section (RCS) of 1.03 m^2. Unfortunately, t0e latest elset is more than two days old. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Alan -- Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144 Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/