Decay watch: February 11

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 11 Feb 1999 20:28:47 +0000

There are new SpaceCom decay notices for both current decayers:

Object                            Notice issued    Predicted decay
                                       UTC              UTC

#16187 = Molniya 1-65             Feb 11 10:12     Feb 13 08:19 +-1d

#19771 = Gorizont 17 aux motor    Feb 11 15:15     Feb 15 11:49 +-18h

               -------------------------------

The latest elset for Molniya 1-65 ...

Molniya 1-65                                     4872 x 64 km
1 16187U 85099A   99042.66642333  .94619887  00000-0  53692-3 0  2657
2 16187  61.7012 129.8954 2717675 262.4629  66.3598 10.43486690 98001

shows it 2.3 minutes early on yesterday's SatEvo prediction. I now
predict decay for February 13.49 (11:53 UTC +-9 hours) close to perigee
near 61 deg S, 80 deg E. New predicted elsets (with perigee adjusted
upwards):

Molniya 1-65                                     4191 x 75 km
1 16187U 85099A   99043.03985387  .90872580  13375+0  10455-2 0 92651
2 16187  61.7007 129.2081 2417410 262.5526  69.5953 11.05696182 98043
Molniya 1-65                                     3682 x 75 km
1 16187U 85099A   99043.30578176 1.03181372  17782+0  10816-2 0 92659
2 16187  61.7003 128.6702 2184000 262.6228  72.2274 11.57141618 98074
Molniya 1-65                                     3168 x 75 km
1 16187U 85099A   99043.55969577 1.19458882  25432+0  10936-2 0 92659
2 16187  61.6920 128.1104 1933177 262.6959  75.0587 12.13433062 98101
Molniya 1-65                                     2638 x 75 km
1 16187U 85099A   99043.80155631 1.42305060  39328+0  11575-2 0 92659
2 16187  61.6576 127.5246 1656729 262.7735  78.1812 12.76339619 98136

               -------------------------------

The latest elset for the aux motor is:

Gorizont 17 aux motor                            736 x 124 km
1 19771U 89004E   99042.61638292  .05877425  00000-0  24554-3 0  4814
2 19771  46.3840 216.0621 0449198  11.6046 349.5401 15.45483752162552

SatEvo still suggests that this will decay at February 16.0 +-0.9 day.
Prediction:

Gorizont 17 aux motor                            708 x 124 km
1 19771U 89004E   99043.00363638  .06320163  29255-2  25219-3 0 94813
2 19771  46.3826 213.9278 0430187  13.7384 347.3968 15.50240564162615
Gorizont 17 aux motor                            670 x 123 km
1 19771U 89004E   99043.51809350  .06822723  36305-2  25395-3 0 94813
2 19771  46.3806 211.0688 0403330  16.5969 344.6860 15.56992817162697
Gorizont 17 aux motor                            628 x 123 km
1 19771U 89004E   99044.03022873  .07452375  46426-2  25649-3 0 94818
2 19771  46.3784 208.1939 0374382  19.4716 341.9215 15.64290342162770


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/