Decay watch: February 9

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 9 Feb 1999 22:19:50 +0000

Today's SpaceCom decay notices:

Object                            Notice issued    Predicted decay
                                       UTC              UTC

#22584 = GPS 2-19 r2              Feb  9 13:55     Feb 10 13:50 +-15h

#16187 = Molniya 1-65             Feb  9 06:42     Feb 13 03:31 +-2d

#19771 = Gorizont 17 aux motor    Feb  8 08:28     Feb 14 23:14 +-4d

The latest elsets for these:

Molniya 1-65                                     8019 x 72 km
1 16187U 85099A   99040.74272343  .53163547  25343-5  86076-3 0  2425
2 16187  61.6966 132.6505 3811818 261.8941 183.6601  8.15803259 97824
Gorizont 17 aux motor                            849 x 142 km
1 19771U 89004E   99040.53215764  .04441734  90057-5  63400-3 0  4704
2 19771  46.3920 227.3274 0513718   1.1371 359.0546 15.23501957162162
GPS 2-19 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d            473 x 131 km
1 22584U 93017D   99040.55145352  .12649237  13409-5  57705-3 0  2113
2 22584  34.4567 128.3720 0256437  59.0578 303.5119 15.90096846136433

               -------------------------------

My own SatEvo predictions:

   #    Designation    Name               Predicted decay (UTC)

 22584   93- 17 D  GPS 2-19 r2           February 10.63 (15:10 +-5h)
 16187   85- 99 A  Molniya 1-65          February 13.5  +-0.8d
 19771   89-  4 E  Gorizont 17 aux mot   February 15.8  +-1.3d


The above elset for #22584, the GPS 2-19 r2, has it running 16 seconds
early on yesterday's prediction. My new analysis has it decaying on the
southbound approach to a daylight equator crossing near 68 deg W
longitude at 15:14 UTC. Predicted elsets:
GPS 2-19 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d            420 x 129 km
1 22584U 93017D   99040.86429331  .17236300  42279-1  62413-3 0 92111
2 22584  34.4546 126.1666 0218937  62.2667 299.9371 16.00122565136486
GPS 2-19 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d            383 x 127 km
1 22584U 93017D   99041.05100792  .20162366  64333-1  63255-3 0 92114
2 22584  34.4532 124.8345 0192470  64.2052 297.7681 16.07065816136519
GPS 2-19 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d            322 x 125 km
1 22584U 93017D   99041.29854411  .27573315  15404+0  65693-3 0 92112
2 22584  34.4506 123.0454 0148936  66.8085 294.7534 16.18617674136559
GPS 2-19 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d            226 x 120 km
1 22584U 93017D   99041.54385981  .58683405  13205+1  75369-3 0 92116
2 22584  34.4466 121.2361 0081028  69.4415 291.4261 16.37212524136596
GPS 2-19 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d            180 x 116 km
1 22584U 93017D   99041.60461037 1.14414453  85571+1  90069-3 0 92117
2 22584  34.4448 120.7786 0048436  70.1073 290.4140 16.46704567136606


The latest elset for the Molniya shows it to be 4.4 minutes late on
yesterday's prediction. New prediction:
Molniya 1-65                                     7546 x 79 km
1 16187U 85099A   99041.06196394  .48985175  38346-1  11496-2 0 92420
2 16187  61.6963 132.2721 3663420 261.9436  55.8210  8.43982903 97855
Molniya 1-65                                     7175 x 79 km
1 16187U 85099A   99041.29612462  .51820154  42457-1  11590-2 0 92426
2 16187  61.6961 131.9794 3545873 261.9819  57.1315  8.67576071 97879
Molniya 1-65                                     6629 x 79 km
1 16187U 85099A   99041.63548441  .56515300  50011-1  11750-2 0 92421
2 16187  61.6957 131.5305 3365015 262.0407  59.1519  9.04297339 97902
Molniya 1-65                                     6096 x 79 km
1 16187U 85099A   99041.96105304  .61850464  59729-1  11936-2 0 92424
2 16187  61.6954 131.0690 3178075 262.1011  61.2454  9.42782815 97936

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/