SatEvo decay list #70

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 7 Feb 1999 16:50:23 +0000

SatEvo decay list #70  (issued 1999 February 7)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses 
is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L,
and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
   http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html

The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published 
orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. 
Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate 
their decay by 1999 March 31, although some larger and/or more 
interesting decayers are included beyond that date. Once again, 
predicted decay dates have slipped, particularly for decayers 
(mainly debris objects) with relatively high perigees.

This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via 
my SatEvo page at
             http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all
the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus
elsets for other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle, 
and all newly launched and/or catalogued objects.


   #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (1999) -----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 23066   89- 89 BM  COBE deb                        January 17
 25579   98- 74 C   Iridium 11A CZ-2C r             January 20.88
 24532   94- 29 WG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January 21
 25247   87- 68 BQ  Meteor 2-16 deb                 January 21
 23972   94- 29 S   STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January 22
 25193   87- 68 U   Meteor 2-16 deb                 January 24
 24038   94- 29 CK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January 26
 25065   97- 74 C   ETS-7 r                         January 27.77
 24542   94- 29 WS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January 28
  3564   68- 97 Q   Cosmos 252 deb                  January 29.0
 25617   99-  2 B   ROCSAT-1 Orb Adj Module         January 29.95
 25190   87- 68 R   Meteor 2-16 deb                 January 30? Notes 3,4
 25211   87- 68 AN  Meteor 2-16 deb                 January 30  Note 3
 24019   94- 29 BQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              January 31
 24565   94- 29 XR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             February  2
 24405   94- 29 RJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             February  4
 23529   95- 13 B   Intlst 705 Centaur r           February  6.52
 22584   93- 17 D   GPS 2-19 r2           February 10
 19771   89-  4 E   Gorizont 17 aux mot   February 16
 25217   87- 68 AU  Meteor 2-16 deb       February 16
 24228   94- 29 LB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February 14
 23075   89- 89 BW  COBE deb              February 18? Note 2
  5399   71- 67 L   OV1-20/OV1-21 deb     February 19
 13103   82-  6 C   OPS 2849 deb          February 20  Note 5
 16187   85- 99 A   Molniya 1-65          February 20?
 19560   88- 81 E   GSTAR 3 Ariane 3 deb  February 20
 15551   69- 82 KQ  OPS 1807 T-Agena deb  February 21
 25186   87- 68 M   Meteor 2-16 deb       February 24
 24224   94- 29 KX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February 26
 14356   81- 53 HS  Cosmos 1275 deb       February 27
 16683   86- 31 A   Molniya 3-28             March  1?
 22440   92- 93 EH  C 2227 Zenit deb         March  3
 23973   94- 29 T   STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March  5
 25213   87- 68 AQ  Meteor 2-16 deb          March  5
 19145   87- 20 BE  Cosmos 1823 deb          March  7
 23993   94- 29 AP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March  8
 23907   96- 29 B   NOSS 2-3 r               March  9
 25197   87- 68 Y   Meteor 2-16 deb          March  9
 24369   94- 29 PW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 15
 24430   94- 29 SJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 15
   175   61- 15 AZ  Transit 4a r deb         March 17
 15440   84-123 B   NOAA 9 deb               March 20
 24270   94- 29 MV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 21
 25166   98-  8 E   Globalstar 1 Delta r     March 21
 25472   98- 51 F   Iridium 82 Delta r       March 26
 25452   87- 68 BZ  Meteor 2-16 deb          March 30
 25607   99-  1 C   MPL Delta 2 r1           April  7
 25580   98- 74 D   Iridm 11A Smart Disp     April 14
  7418   74- 66 B   Cosmos 673 r               May  4
 22583   93- 17 C   GPS 2-19 r1                May  6
 12519   81- 54 E   Molniya 3-16 r2            May 15
 14329   83- 94 B   Satcom 2R Delta r          May 19
 20352   89- 96 A   Granat                    June  3
  8755   76- 24 B   Cosmos 808 r              June
 23186   94- 43 B   APStar 1 CZ-3 r           June
 25347   98- 32 F   Iridium 70 Delta r        June
  4120   69- 84 B   Meteor 1-2 r              July

Notes

1. After recent orbital boosts, Mir is no longer in danger of an unforced
re-entry during the next few months and has been removed from this list.

2. No recent elsets.

3. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.

4. I decayed #24693 = 94- 29 ABB and #25190 = 87- 68 R on "December 31?" 
in my SatEvo decay list #68. SpaceCom has published later elsets for both
objects so my earlier announcements were premature. #24693 is still in
orbit and may decay in April. #25190 probably decayed about January 30.

5. Elsets for #13103 = 82- 6 C (OPS 2849 deb) appear to have been 
declassified on February 3 to celebrate its inclusion in the 
SpaceCom/GSFC 60-Day Decay Forecast.


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/